ES Setif
vs
JS Kabylie
Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: ES Setif 1-1 JS Kabylie.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% ES Setif, 29% draw, 29% JS Kabylie — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: ES Setif 1.45, JS Kabylie 1.12.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Model insights: ES Setif vs JS Kabylie
Has the model earned this number?
It puts ES Setif at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into ES Setif vs JS Kabylie
ES Setif
- D0-0away to MC Oran8 October 2026
- W5-1CS Constantine19 September 2026
- L0-1away to CR Belouizdad11 September 2026
- L0-1Ben Aknoun3 September 2026
JS Kabylie
- W1-0ASO Chlef9 October 2026
- L0-1away to Témouchent17 September 2026
- W1-0MB Rouisset4 September 2026
What these results say
- ES Setif failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- ES Setif failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- ES Setif conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | ES Setif | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 5 |
| 7 | JS Kabylie | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: ES Setif vs JS Kabylie
- 8 May 2026JS Kabylie 5–1 ES SetifLigue 1
- 19 December 2025ES Setif 1–0 JS KabylieLigue 1
- 12 June 2025JS Kabylie 2–0 ES SetifLigue 1
- 13 December 2024ES Setif 2–2 JS KabylieLigue 1
- 15 March 2024JS Kabylie 0–1 ES SetifLigue 1
- 10 November 2023ES Setif 1–0 JS KabylieLigue 1
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.45 goals for ES Setif and 1.12 for JS Kabylie; the game produced 1 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: R. Benayad 11' (ES Setif), B. Messaoudi 33' (JS Kabylie).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives ES Setif the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for ES Setif against 1.12 for JS Kabylie. ES Setif's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.54 for JS Kabylie.