MC Oran
vs
Khenchela
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: MC Oran 1–0 Khenchela
The model makes it 46% MC Oran, 29% draw, 25% Khenchela — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: MC Oran 1.47, Khenchela 0.92.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- MC Oran are 2nd on 10 points from 4 games; Khenchela are 10th on 5 points from 4 games — Ligue 1.
- MC Oran are unbeaten in their last 4 games (3 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to US Biskra.
- Khenchela have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to CS Constantine.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 March 2026, ended MC Oran 2–1 Khenchela.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: MC Oran vs Khenchela
Has the model earned this number?
It puts MC Oran at 46% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into MC Oran vs Khenchela
MC Oran
- W1-0away to US Biskra13 October 2026
- D0-0ES Setif8 October 2026
- W1-0away to ASO Chlef18 September 2026
- W2-0Témouchent11 September 2026
Khenchela
- W2-0CS Constantine12 October 2026
- L0-1away to CR Belouizdad7 October 2026
- D1-1Ben Aknoun18 September 2026
- D0-0USM Alger4 September 2026
What these results say
- MC Oran went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- MC Oran kept a clean sheet in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for MC Oran had two goals or fewer.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Khenchela had two goals or fewer.
- Khenchela failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | MC Oran | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
| 10 | Khenchela | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: MC Oran vs Khenchela
- 6 March 2026MC Oran 2–1 KhenchelaLigue 1
- 4 October 2025Khenchela 2–0 MC OranLigue 1
- 10 May 2025Khenchela 2–1 MC OranLigue 1
- 22 November 2024MC Oran 0–0 KhenchelaLigue 1
- 23 March 2024Khenchela 0–0 MC OranLigue 1
- 17 November 2023MC Oran 1–0 KhenchelaLigue 1
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
MC Oran carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.3 for Khenchela. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for MC Oran and 0.92 for Khenchela. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
MC Oran rate 0.55 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Khenchela rate 0.54 and 1.64.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives MC Oran the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for MC Oran against 0.92 for Khenchela. MC Oran's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.64 for Khenchela.
Season stats
MC Oran at home · Khenchela away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: MC Oran 4, Khenchela 4.
MC Oran score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Khenchela have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
MC Oran
- at JS El Biar23 Oct · Ligue 1win 35%
- at USM Alger24 Oct · Ligue 1win 29%
- vs JS Saoura31 Oct · Ligue 1win 45%
Khenchela
- vs JS Kabylie24 Oct · Ligue 1win 40%
- vs Témouchent24 Oct · Ligue 1win 53%
- at ASO Chlef31 Oct · Ligue 1win 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.