Le Mans
vs
Toulouse
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Le Mans 2–1 Toulouse
The model makes it 41% Le Mans, 26% draw, 33% Toulouse — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Le Mans 1.94, Toulouse 1.64.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Le Mans are 9th on 6 points from 5 games; Toulouse are 13th on 5 points from 5 games — Ligue 1.
- Le Mans are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Lorient.
- Toulouse have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Le Havre.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Le Mans vs Toulouse
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Le Mans at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Le Mans vs Toulouse
Le Mans
- W2-1Lorient19 September 2026
- D2-2Lens13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Nice5 September 2026
- L2-3away to Rennes30 August 2026
- D2-2Stade Brestois 2922 August 2026
Toulouse
- W3-2Le Havre19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Lorient12 September 2026
- L0-1Lille3 September 2026
- D2-2away to Stade Brestois 2929 August 2026
- L0-2Lyon22 August 2026
What these results say
- Le Mans scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Le Mans conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Le Mans.
- Toulouse conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Toulouse failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Le Mans and Toulouse
Le Mans
- A. Bourabaa3 goals2 assists
- L. Mafouta3 goals1 assist
Toulouse
- C. Tengstedt3 goals
- T. Jørgensen2 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Le Mans carry a model rating of 6.74 against 6.75 for Toulouse. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.94 goals for Le Mans and 1.64 for Toulouse. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Le Mans rate 0.99 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Toulouse rate 0.96 and 1.17.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Le Mans the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Le Mans against 1.64 for Toulouse. Le Mans's attack/defence rating is 0.99/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/1.17 for Toulouse.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Le Mans at home · Toulouse away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Le Mans 5, Toulouse 5.
Toulouse score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Le Mans have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Le Mans
- at Auxerre25 Oct · Ligue 1win 34%
- at Estac Troyes31 Oct · Ligue 1win 41%
- vs Monaco8 Nov · Ligue 1win 29%
- at Marseille22 Nov · Ligue 1win 25%
Toulouse
- vs Estac Troyes24 Oct · Ligue 1win 50%
- at Marseille1 Nov · Ligue 1win 26%
- vs Strasbourg6 Nov · Ligue 1win 37%
- at Lens21 Nov · Ligue 1win 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.