Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
vs
Étoile Carouge
Schweizer Cup prediction
Our model says: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1–0 Étoile Carouge
The model makes it 60% Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, 26% draw, 14% Étoile Carouge — fair odds of 1.67, 3.85 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.75, Étoile Carouge 0.59.
Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are top on 24 points from 10 games; Étoile Carouge are 9th on 9 points from 10 games — Challenge League.
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-0 win away to Rapperswil.
- Étoile Carouge have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Yverdon Sport.
- Last 6 meetings: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 September 2026, ended Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3–0 Étoile Carouge.
Chance to go through
Schweizer Cup Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy65%
- Level after ninety minutes23%
- Étoile Carouge12%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More Schweizer Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Étoile Carouge
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 60% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Étoile Carouge
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
- W3-0away to Rapperswil9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Yverdon Sport20 September 2026
- W4-0FC WIL 190011 September 2026
- W2-0away to SC Kriens4 September 2026
- W3-0Étoile Carouge1 September 2026
Étoile Carouge
- L0-2Yverdon Sport9 October 2026
- L1-4away to SC Kriens18 September 2026
- L0-1FC Winterthur11 September 2026
- D1-1FC WIL 19004 September 2026
- L0-3away to Stade Lausanne-Ouchy1 September 2026
What these results say
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy kept a clean sheet in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Étoile Carouge did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Étoile Carouge conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 3 | +17 | 24 |
| 9 | Étoile Carouge | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Étoile Carouge
- 1 September 2026Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3–0 Étoile CarougeChallenge League
- 10 April 2026Étoile Carouge 1–1 Stade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League
- 28 February 2026Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0–1 Étoile CarougeChallenge League
- 19 December 2025Étoile Carouge 1–2 Stade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League
- 30 August 2025Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2–0 Étoile CarougeChallenge League
- 2 May 2025Étoile Carouge 1–2 Stade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League
The two sides
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy carry a model rating of 6.38 against 5.99 for Étoile Carouge. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 0.59 for Étoile Carouge. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy rate 0.52 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Étoile Carouge rate 0.36 and 2.07.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stade Lausanne-Ouchy the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy against 0.59 for Étoile Carouge. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.36/2.07 for Étoile Carouge.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home · Étoile Carouge away
League matches only, Challenge League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Challenge League matches this season: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 10, Étoile Carouge 10.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Étoile Carouge have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
- vs Neuchatel Xamax FC23 Oct · Challenge Leaguewin 59%
- vs Yverdon Sport30 Oct · Challenge Leaguewin 47%
- at Stade Nyonnais6 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 57%
- vs SC Kriens20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 51%
- at Étoile Carouge27 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 45%
Étoile Carouge
- at FC Aarau24 Oct · Challenge Leaguewin 15%
- vs SC Kriens30 Oct · Challenge Leaguewin 32%
- at FC Winterthur7 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 18%
- at Neuchatel Xamax FC20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 24%
- vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy27 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.