Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
vs
Club Africain
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1–0 Club Africain
The model makes it 35% Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer, 31% draw, 34% Club Africain — fair odds of 2.86, 3.23 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1.09, Club Africain 1.09.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 961 settled matches.
A tight game: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer and Club Africain are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer's rating is built from 6 Ligue 1 (Tunisia) matches and Club Africain's from 33, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer are 4th on 11 points from 6 games; Club Africain are 7th on 9 points from 4 games — Ligue 1.
- Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to US Monastirienne.
- Club Africain have won 3 of their last 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to US Ben Guerdane.
More Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs Club Africain
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at 35% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs Club Africain
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Ligue 1
- L0-1away to US Monastirienne18 October 2026
- W1-0CS Sfaxien10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Olympique Béja13 September 2026
- W1-0CS Hammam-Lif5 September 2026
- D0-0away to AS Marsa29 August 2026
Club Africain
Ligue 1
- L1-2away to US Ben Guerdane10 October 2026
- W1-0ES Zarzis20 September 2026
- W1-0ES Hammam-Sousse29 August 2026
- W1-0away to ES Metlaoui23 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer had two goals or fewer.
- Club Africain scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Club Africain won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Club Africain kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Club Africain | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.59 for Club Africain. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.09 goals for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer and 1.09 for Club Africain. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer rate 0.57 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club Africain rate 0.70 and 1.18.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer a 4.7% chance of the title and Club Africain 24.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
How the call on Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer v Club Africain has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 29% / 31% / 40% (home / draw / away). After 4 updates it reads 35% / 31% / 34%: the biggest move is Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer win35%▲ +6
- Draw31%=
- Club Africain win34%▼ −6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer against 1.09 for Club Africain. Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.18 for Club Africain.
How the model reaches 35% for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer's ratings take away 20 points and Club Africain's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 35%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer's ratings24%−20
- Club Africain's ratings35%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at home · Club Africain away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 6, Club Africain 4.
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); Club Africain have let in 0 there.
Club Africain score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
- at ES Hammam-Sousse21 Nov · Ligue 1win 52%
- vs Stade Tunisien28 Nov · Ligue 1win 43%
- at ES Zarzis5 Dec · Ligue 1win 33%
- vs US Ben Guerdane12 Dec · Ligue 1win 43%
- at CA Bizertin19 Dec · Ligue 1win 37%
Club Africain
- vs ES Tunis21 Nov · Ligue 1win 50%
- at ES Sahel28 Nov · Ligue 1win 47%
- vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane5 Dec · Ligue 1win 61%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.