Ben Aknoun
vs
MC Alger
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Ben Aknoun 0–1 MC Alger
The model makes it 30% Ben Aknoun, 28% draw, 42% MC Alger — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Ben Aknoun 1.16, MC Alger 1.49.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Edge to MC Alger: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Ben Aknoun's rating is built from 38 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and MC Alger's from 37, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Ben Aknoun are 11th on 8 points from 8 games; MC Alger are 3rd on 16 points from 7 games — Ligue 1.
- Ben Aknoun have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to CR Belouizdad.
- MC Alger have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to JS El Biar.
- Last 6 meetings: MC Alger 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 21 April 2026, ended Ben Aknoun 2–3 MC Alger.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ben Aknoun vs MC Alger
Has the model earned this number?
MC Alger at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Ben Aknoun vs MC Alger
Ben Aknoun
Ligue 1
- L0-1CR Belouizdad8 November 2026
- D1-1away to MB Rouisset31 October 2026
- D0-0away to JS Saoura24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Olympique Akbou16 October 2026
- D2-2JS El Biar7 October 2026
MC Alger
Ligue 1
- L0-1away to JS El Biar8 November 2026
- W2-0MC Oran4 November 2026
- W2-0Khenchela31 October 2026
- W1-0away to US Biskra27 October 2026
- D1-1away to ASO Chlef13 October 2026
What these results say
- Ben Aknoun did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Ben Aknoun conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for MC Alger had two goals or fewer.
- MC Alger scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Algeria Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Ben Aknoun | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
| 3 | MC Alger | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Ben Aknoun
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 9% today
MC Alger
Chance to finish in the top two · 52% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Ben Aknoun vs MC Alger
- 21 April 2026Ben Aknoun 2–3 MC AlgerLigue 1
- 13 January 2026MC Alger 1–0 Ben AknounCoupe Nationale
- 23 December 2025MC Alger 1–0 Ben AknounLigue 1
- 30 December 2024Ben Aknoun 0–3 MC AlgerCoupe Nationale
- 20 March 2024Ben Aknoun 2–3 MC AlgerLigue 1
- 16 September 2023MC Alger 4–0 Ben AknounLigue 1
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ben Aknoun a 0.2% chance of the title and MC Alger 27.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives MC Alger the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Ben Aknoun against 1.49 for MC Alger. Ben Aknoun's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.15 for MC Alger.
How the model reaches 42% for MC Alger to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for MC Alger to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Ben Aknoun's ratings add 8 points and MC Alger's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Ben Aknoun's ratings36%+8
- MC Alger's ratings42%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Ben Aknoun at home · MC Alger away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Ben Aknoun 8, MC Alger 7.
Ben Aknoun score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); MC Alger have let in 0 there.
MC Alger score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Ben Aknoun have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Ben Aknoun
- vs MC Oran1 Dec · Ligue 1win 39%
- at Témouchent26 Dec · Ligue 1win 35%
MC Alger
No further matches on our board yet.
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.