Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
vs
US Monastirienne
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 0–1 US Monastirienne
The model makes it 35% Jeunesse Sportive Omrane, 29% draw, 36% US Monastirienne — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1.29, US Monastirienne 1.31.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
A tight game: Jeunesse Sportive Omrane and US Monastirienne are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Jeunesse Sportive Omrane's rating is built from 37 Ligue 1 (Tunisia) matches and US Monastirienne's from 37, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Jeunesse Sportive Omrane are 9th on 10 points from 7 games; US Monastirienne are 5th on 12 points from 7 games — Ligue 1.
- Jeunesse Sportive Omrane are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Olympique Béja.
- US Monastirienne have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to ES Tunis.
- Last 5 meetings: US Monastirienne 4 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 April 2026, ended Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 0–0 US Monastirienne.
More Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs US Monastirienne
Has the model earned this number?
US Monastirienne at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs US Monastirienne
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
Ligue 1
- D0-0Olympique Béja23 October 2026
- D1-1away to CS Hammam-Lif18 October 2026
- D0-0AS Marsa11 October 2026
- W1-0ES Metlaoui13 September 2026
- D1-1away to ES Sahel6 September 2026
US Monastirienne
Ligue 1
- L0-1away to ES Tunis7 November 2026
- W1-0Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer18 October 2026
- D0-0away to CA Bizertin10 October 2026
- W2-1away to ES Zarzis16 September 2026
- D3-3US Ben Guerdane12 September 2026
What these results say
- Jeunesse Sportive Omrane went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Jeunesse Sportive Omrane had two goals or fewer.
- Jeunesse Sportive Omrane failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Tunisia Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 10 |
| 5 | US Monastirienne | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 4% today
US Monastirienne
Chance to finish in the top two · 13% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs US Monastirienne
- 4 April 2026Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 0–0 US MonastirienneLigue 1
- 5 October 2025US Monastirienne 2–1 Jeunesse Sportive OmraneLigue 1
- 7 April 2025US Monastirienne 2–1 Jeunesse Sportive OmraneCup
- 20 February 2025US Monastirienne 7–0 Jeunesse Sportive OmraneLigue 1
- 19 October 2024Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1–2 US MonastirienneLigue 1
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Jeunesse Sportive Omrane a 0.1% chance of the title and US Monastirienne 4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives US Monastirienne the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Jeunesse Sportive Omrane against 1.31 for US Monastirienne. Jeunesse Sportive Omrane's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.47 for US Monastirienne.
How the model reaches 36% for US Monastirienne to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for US Monastirienne to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Jeunesse Sportive Omrane's ratings add 3 points and US Monastirienne's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Jeunesse Sportive Omrane's ratings32%+3
- US Monastirienne's ratings36%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane at home · US Monastirienne away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 7, US Monastirienne 7.
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); US Monastirienne have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
- at Club Africain5 Dec · Ligue 1win 18%
- vs ES Hammam-Sousse12 Dec · Ligue 1win 60%
- at Stade Tunisien19 Dec · Ligue 1win 20%
- vs ES Zarzis26 Dec · Ligue 1win 43%
US Monastirienne
- vs AS Marsa5 Dec · Ligue 1win 51%
- at CS Hammam-Lif12 Dec · Ligue 1win 37%
- vs Olympique Béja19 Dec · Ligue 1win 61%
- at CS Sfaxien26 Dec · Ligue 1win 22%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.