ES Metlaoui
vs
US Ben Guerdane
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: ES Metlaoui 1–2 US Ben Guerdane
The model makes it 30% ES Metlaoui, 27% draw, 43% US Ben Guerdane — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: ES Metlaoui 1.24, US Ben Guerdane 1.62.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Edge to US Ben Guerdane: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. ES Metlaoui's rating is built from 37 Ligue 1 (Tunisia) matches and US Ben Guerdane's from 37, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- ES Metlaoui are 12th on 6 points from 7 games; US Ben Guerdane are top on 17 points from 7 games — Ligue 1.
- ES Metlaoui have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to ES Zarzis.
- US Ben Guerdane are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Stade Tunisien.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 5 April 2026, ended US Ben Guerdane 0–0 ES Metlaoui.
More Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: ES Metlaoui vs US Ben Guerdane
Has the model earned this number?
US Ben Guerdane at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into ES Metlaoui vs US Ben Guerdane
ES Metlaoui
Ligue 1
- W2-1ES Zarzis8 November 2026
- L0-3away to AS Marsa18 October 2026
- L1-2Stade Tunisien11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Jeunesse Sportive Omrane13 September 2026
- W1-0ES Hammam-Sousse6 September 2026
US Ben Guerdane
Ligue 1
- W1-0Stade Tunisien23 October 2026
- W2-0away to ES Hammam-Sousse17 October 2026
- W2-1Club Africain10 October 2026
- W1-0CS Hammam-Lif20 September 2026
- D1-1CS Sfaxien16 September 2026
What these results say
- ES Metlaoui conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- US Ben Guerdane went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- US Ben Guerdane scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- US Ben Guerdane won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Tunisia Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | ES Metlaoui | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 6 |
| 1 | US Ben Guerdane | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
ES Metlaoui
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 47% today
US Ben Guerdane
Chance to finish in the top two · 47% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: ES Metlaoui vs US Ben Guerdane
- 5 April 2026US Ben Guerdane 0–0 ES MetlaouiLigue 1
- 3 October 2025ES Metlaoui 1–1 US Ben GuerdaneLigue 1
- 3 March 2025US Ben Guerdane 2–2 ES MetlaouiLigue 1
- 10 November 2024ES Metlaoui 1–1 US Ben GuerdaneLigue 1
- 26 May 2024US Ben Guerdane 3–0 ES MetlaouiLigue 1
- 3 March 2024ES Metlaoui 3–1 US Ben GuerdaneLigue 1
Leading scorers: ES Metlaoui and US Ben Guerdane
ES Metlaoui
GoalsAssists
- Mohamed Bouzaabya10
US Ben Guerdane
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives ES Metlaoui a 0% chance of the title and US Ben Guerdane 26.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives US Ben Guerdane the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for ES Metlaoui against 1.62 for US Ben Guerdane. ES Metlaoui's attack/defence rating is 0.49/2.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.56 for US Ben Guerdane.
How the model reaches 43% for US Ben Guerdane to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for US Ben Guerdane to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, ES Metlaoui's ratings add 7 points and US Ben Guerdane's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- ES Metlaoui's ratings36%+7
- US Ben Guerdane's ratings43%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
ES Metlaoui at home · US Ben Guerdane away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: ES Metlaoui 7, US Ben Guerdane 7.
ES Metlaoui score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); US Ben Guerdane have let in 2 there.
US Ben Guerdane score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); ES Metlaoui have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
ES Metlaoui
- at Olympique Béja5 Dec · Ligue 1win 30%
- vs CA Bizertin12 Dec · Ligue 1win 39%
- at CS Sfaxien19 Dec · Ligue 1win 12%
- vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer26 Dec · Ligue 1win 29%
US Ben Guerdane
- vs CA Bizertin5 Dec · Ligue 1win 55%
- at Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer12 Dec · Ligue 1win 28%
- vs ES Tunis19 Dec · Ligue 1win 39%
- at ES Sahel26 Dec · Ligue 1win 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.