Beijing Guoan
vs
Sichuan Jiuniu
Super League prediction & result
Final score: Beijing Guoan 4-0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Before kick-off the model made it 76% Beijing Guoan, 14% draw, 10% Sichuan Jiuniu — fair odds of 1.32, 7.14 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Beijing Guoan 3.00, Sichuan Jiuniu 1.07.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Beijing Guoan
- W2-1Hangzhou Greentown1 August 2026
- D2-2away to Chengdu Better City26 July 2026
- D1-1Shenyang Urban17 July 2026
- W2-0Shandong Luneng4 July 2026
Sichuan Jiuniu
- W2-0Chongqing Tongliang Long2 August 2026
- L3-4away to Yunnan Yukun26 July 2026
- L0-2away to Wuhan Three Towns18 July 2026
- W3-0Qingdao Youth Island11 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Beijing Guoan | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 38 | 27 | +11 | 29 |
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 22 | 7 | 2 | 13 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full tables
Leading scorers
Beijing Guoan
- Zhang Yuning10 goals5 assists
Sichuan Jiuniu
- Wesley Moraes10 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Beijing Guoan the highest probability at 76%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3 expected goals for Beijing Guoan against 1.07 for Sichuan Jiuniu. Beijing Guoan's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.89 for Sichuan Jiuniu.