AC Milan
vs
Benfica
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: AC Milan 1–2 Benfica
The model makes it 33% AC Milan, 27% draw, 40% Benfica — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: AC Milan 1.50, Benfica 1.79.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: AC Milan vs Benfica
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are AC Milan wins, grey are draws, red are Benfica wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benfica at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into AC Milan vs Benfica
AC Milan
- D2-2away to Lazio12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Juventus6 September 2026
- W2-0Venezia28 August 2026
- W2-1away to Torino23 August 2026
Benfica
- W3-1GIL Vicente13 September 2026
- W4-0away to Moreirense9 September 2026
- W3-0away to Maritimo5 September 2026
- W2-1Estoril31 August 2026
- W7-0away to Casa Pia17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AC Milan and Benfica in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | AC Milan | Serie A | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 8 |
| 2 | Benfica | Primeira Liga | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 16 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Serie A · Primeira Liga
Leading scorers: AC Milan and Benfica
AC Milan
- A. Cissè2 goals
Benfica
- V. Pavlidis8 goals2 assists
- G. Prestianni5 goals2 assists
- L. Barreiro2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
AC Milan carry a model rating of 6.92 against 7.16 for Benfica. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for AC Milan and 1.79 for Benfica. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AC Milan rate 1.14 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Benfica rate 1.50 and 0.81.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Benfica the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.5 expected goals for AC Milan against 1.79 for Benfica. AC Milan's attack/defence rating is 1.14/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.5/0.81 for Benfica.