16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

AC Milan vs Benfica UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Milan
Full time0 – 2

Final score: AC Milan 0-2 Benfica.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% AC Milan, 27% draw, 40% Benfica — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Benfica at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AC Milan0%Draw1%Benfica99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Strahinja Pavlović
11'
16'
⚽D. Lukebakioassist: J. Kaminski
26'
Souffian El Karouani
37'
Jhon Durán
🔁F. Terraccianoout: M. Gila
46'
🔁O. Hutchinsonout: C. Pulisic
46'
53'
⚽J. Kaminskiassist: S. El Karouani
🔁D. Bartesaghiout: A. Saelemaekers
57'
🔁A. Cisseout: D. Moreira
57'
70'
🔁F. Aursnesout: L. Barreiro
70'
🔁G. Sudakovout: G. Prestianni
🔁A. Jashariout: A. Rabiot
73'
77'
Daniel Banjaqui
80'
🔁J. Duranout: V. Pavlidis
80'
🔁J. Kaminskiout: A. Schjelderup
84'
Leandro Barreiro
88'
🔁S. El Karouaniout: S. Dahl
90+2'
Vangelis Pavlidis

Match stats — AC Milan vs Benfica

60%Possession40%
17Shots11
4On target4
10Corners1
0.96xG0.64

Goals against chances

AC Milan0 from 0.96 xGless than the chances were worth
Benfica2 from 0.64 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AC Milan 3-4-2-1
  • 16M. MaignanG
  • 42F. TerraccianoD
  • 5K. De WinterD
  • 31S. PavlovicD
  • 21S. ChukwuezeM
  • 30A. JashariM
  • 80Y. MusahM
  • 33D. BartesaghiM
  • 20O. HutchinsonF
  • 70A. CisseF
  • 9G. RamosF
Substitutes
  • 96L. TorrianiG
  • 23F. TomoriD
  • 2P. EstupinanD
  • 34M. GilaD
  • 46M. GabbiaD
  • 14L. ModricM
  • 8R. Loftus-CheekM
  • 56A. SaelemaekersF
  • 22D. MoreiraF
Coach: Ruben Amorim
Benfica 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. TrubinG
  • 58D. BanjaquiD
  • 3A. CircatiD
  • 44T. AraujoD
  • 34S. El KarouaniD
  • 8F. AursnesM
  • 36J. PalhinhaM
  • 11D. LukebakioM
  • 10G. SudakovM
  • 13J. KaminskiM
  • 22J. DuranF
Substitutes
  • 24S. SoaresG
  • 2C. LengletD
  • 26S. DahlD
  • 18L. BarreiroM
  • 16Manu SilvaM
  • 30C. EcheverriM
  • 5E. BarrenecheaM
  • 25G. PrestianniF
  • 72AnisioF
Coach: Marco Silva

Form going into AC Milan vs Benfica

AC Milan

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Lazio12 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Juventus6 September 2026
  • W2-0Venezia28 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Torino23 August 2026

Benfica

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1GIL Vicente13 September 2026
  • W4-0away to Moreirense9 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Maritimo5 September 2026
  • W2-1Estoril31 August 2026
  • W3-1away to Aarhus27 August 2026

What these results say

  • AC Milan went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • AC Milan scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • AC Milan conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Benfica won every one of these 5 matches.
  • Benfica scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Benfica had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
24AC Milan310245-13
1Benfica3300102+89

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AC Milan vs Benfica

  • 28 July 2019AC Milan 0–1 BenficaInternational Champions Cup

Leading scorers: AC Milan and Benfica

AC Milan

GoalsAssists

  • A. Cissè30

Benfica

GoalsAssists

  • V. Pavlidis20

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Benfica won 2–0 at AC Milan. The model had made a win for Benfica its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: D. Lukebakio 16' for Benfica, J. Kaminski 53' for Benfica. On expected goals it finished 0.96–0.64.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.