Regular Season - 16 · 14 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Bate Borisov vs Neman Premier League prediction & result

Borisov Arena, Borisov
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Bate Borisov 0-2 Neman.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Bate Borisov, 30% draw, 42% Neman — fair odds of 3.57, 3.33 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Bate Borisov 0.93, Neman 1.26.

Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Bate Borisov vs Neman

44%
Both teams to score
38%
Over 2.5 goals
62%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 14%0-1 13%0-0 12%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Neman at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bate Borisov0%Draw1%Neman99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽Danu Spătaruassist: Pavel Savitskiy
29'
Sherif Jimoh
33'
🔁Sherif Jimohout: Andrey Vasiljev
37'
Mikhail Kozlov
🔁Victorien Angbanout: Egor Rusakov
45'
45'
🔁Mikhail Kozlovout: Andrey Yakimov
🔁Vladislav Varaksaout: yaroslav khramtsevich
45'
🔁Ivan Mikhniukout: Luka Đorđević
61'
62'
🔁Pavel Savitskiyout: Andrija Ratkovic
62'
🔁Danu Spătaruout: Anton Suchkov
🔁Yuriy Kovalevout: Marat Titov
69'
77'
⚽Andrija Ratkovicassist: Andrey Yakimov
🔁erick puertoout: vladislav yatskevich
80'
85'
🔁Oleg Evdokimovout: Yuri Pavlyukovets

Match stats — Bate Borisov vs Neman

46%Possession54%
6Shots10
5On target7
3Corners1

Line-ups

Bate Borisov 3-4-3
  • 35A. SkopetsG
  • 88P. DubovskiyD
  • 6H. MoussakhanianD
  • 28I. MikhnyukD
  • 23N. BochkoM
  • 52E. KressM
  • 7V. AngbanM
  • 25N. NeskoromnyM
  • 17Y. KovalevF
  • 37E. PuertoF
  • 26V. VaraksaF
Substitutes
  • 13Y. KhramtsevichM
  • 18P. KolosovskiyM
  • 10E. RusakovM
  • 47A. SakhonchikM
  • 5M. SakutaD
  • 16D. SokolG
  • 21M. TitovM
  • 24V. YatskevichF
  • 42A. ZhurinD
Coach: V. Rogozhkin
Neman 4-2-3-1
  • 16N. MatysyukG
  • 55D. GirsD
  • 14S. JimohD
  • 20I. SadovnichiyD
  • 8Y. PanteaD
  • 47M. KozlovM
  • 10D. LisakovichM
  • 15O. EvdokimovM
  • 9S. PushnyakovM
  • 33D. SpătaruM
  • 88P. SavitskiyF
Substitutes
  • 52Maksim AleksandrovM
  • 19A. DaynekoM
  • 1A. MalievskiyG
  • 6A. NazarenkoM
  • 32Y. PavlyukovetsM
  • 7A. RatkovićF
  • 17A. SuchkovM
  • 2V. TonkevichD
  • 24A. YakimovM
Coach: I. Kovalevich

Form going into Bate Borisov vs Neman

Bate Borisov

  • W2-1Slavia Mozyr10 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Dinamo Minsk19 September 2026
  • D2-2Naftan13 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Dinamo Brest7 September 2026

Neman

  • W3-0Baranovichi10 October 2026
  • W2-1away to FC Isloch Minsk R.19 September 2026
  • W1-0Torpedo Zhodino12 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Belshina6 September 2026

What these results say

  • Bate Borisov conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Bate Borisov failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Neman went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Neman scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Neman won 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Bate Borisov2449111830-1221
4Neman2413473120+1143

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bate Borisov vs Neman

  • 21 March 2026Neman 0–0 Bate BorisovPremier League
  • 6 February 2026Neman 0–0 Bate BorisovFriendlies Clubs
  • 2 November 2025Neman 0–2 Bate BorisovPremier League
  • 14 June 2025Bate Borisov 1–5 NemanPremier League
  • 2 November 2024Bate Borisov 0–3 NemanPremier League
  • 15 June 2024Neman 1–0 Bate BorisovPremier League

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 0.93 goals for Bate Borisov and 1.26 for Neman; the game produced 0 and 2.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Danu Spătaru 8' (Neman), Andrija Ratkovic 77' (Neman).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Neman the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Bate Borisov against 1.26 for Neman. Bate Borisov's attack/defence rating is 0.38/1.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.51 for Neman.