Abu Qair Semad
vs
Asyut Petrol
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Abu Qair Semad 0–0 Asyut Petrol
The model makes it 32% Abu Qair Semad, 36% draw, 32% Asyut Petrol — fair odds of 3.13, 2.78 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-0 (22%).
Expected goals: Abu Qair Semad 0.78, Asyut Petrol 0.78.
Both teams to score: 30%. Over 2.5 goals: 21%, under 2.5: 79%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Abu Qair Semad and Asyut Petrol are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Abu Qair Semad are 17th on 3 points from 5 games; Asyut Petrol are 19th on 2 points from 5 games — Premier League.
- Abu Qair Semad are without a win in 4, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Al Ahly.
- Asyut Petrol have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Future FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Abu Qair Semad 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 15 January 2026, ended Abu Qair Semad 1–0 Asyut Petrol.
All Egyptian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol
Has the model earned this number?
It puts the draw at 36% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol
Abu Qair Semad
- L0-2away to Al Ahly15 September 2026
- L0-2away to Zamalek SC8 September 2026
- L0-2Al Ittihad Alexandria2 September 2026
- L0-2away to Pyramids FC27 August 2026
- W1-0National Bank of Egypt21 August 2026
Asyut Petrol
- L0-2Future FC15 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al Ittihad Alexandria7 September 2026
- L0-1National Bank of Egypt31 August 2026
- D0-0away to Smouha SC26 August 2026
- D1-1Petrojet22 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Abu Qair Semad had two goals or fewer.
- Abu Qair Semad failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Abu Qair Semad failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Asyut Petrol did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Asyut Petrol had two goals or fewer.
- Asyut Petrol failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Abu Qair Semad | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 3 |
| 19 | Asyut Petrol | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol
- 15 January 2026Abu Qair Semad 1–0 Asyut PetrolSecond League
- 30 August 2025Asyut Petrol 0–0 Abu Qair SemadSecond League
- 30 April 2025Asyut Petrol 1–2 Abu Qair SemadSecond League
- 23 December 2024Abu Qair Semad 0–0 Asyut PetrolSecond League
- 27 February 2024Asyut Petrol 1–1 Abu Qair SemadSecond League
- 18 December 2023Asyut Petrol 2–1 Abu Qair SemadSecond League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Abu Qair Semad carry a model rating of 6.1 against 6.15 for Asyut Petrol. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.78 goals for Abu Qair Semad and 0.78 for Asyut Petrol. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Abu Qair Semad rate 0.42 in attack and 1.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Asyut Petrol rate 0.39 and 1.67.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives a draw the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Abu Qair Semad against 0.78 for Asyut Petrol. Abu Qair Semad's attack/defence rating is 0.42/1.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/1.67 for Asyut Petrol.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Abu Qair Semad at home · Asyut Petrol away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Abu Qair Semad 5, Asyut Petrol 5.
Asyut Petrol score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); Abu Qair Semad have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Abu Qair Semad
- at Al Masry19 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- vs Ghazl El Mehalla31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- at Masr24 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 25%
- vs Smouha SC10 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- at El Gouna FC15 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 26%
Asyut Petrol
- vs Zamalek SC20 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 19%
- vs El Gouna FC30 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- at Al Masry24 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- vs Masr10 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- at Al Ahly15 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.