Petrojet
vs
Wadi Degla
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Petrojet 1–2 Wadi Degla
The model makes it 34% Petrojet, 29% draw, 37% Wadi Degla — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Petrojet 1.32, Wadi Degla 1.42.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Petrojet and Wadi Degla are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Petrojet are 8th on 7 points from 5 games; Wadi Degla are 14th on 5 points from 5 games — Premier League.
- Petrojet have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win away to El Gouna FC.
- Wadi Degla are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to El Mokawloon.
- Last 6 meetings: Petrojet 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 May 2026, ended Petrojet 2–2 Wadi Degla.
All Egyptian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Petrojet vs Wadi Degla
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wadi Degla at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Petrojet vs Wadi Degla
Petrojet
- W2-1away to El Gouna FC16 September 2026
- W2-1Al Masry7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Zamalek SC31 August 2026
- L2-3El Geish26 August 2026
- D1-1away to Asyut Petrol22 August 2026
Wadi Degla
- L0-2El Mokawloon15 September 2026
- L1-2away to Future FC9 September 2026
- D0-0Olympic El Qanah1 September 2026
- W3-1away to Enppi28 August 2026
- D0-0Masr21 August 2026
What these results say
- Petrojet scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Petrojet conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Petrojet.
- Wadi Degla failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Petrojet | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | Wadi Degla | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Petrojet vs Wadi Degla
- 8 May 2026Petrojet 2–2 Wadi DeglaPremier League
- 11 December 2025Wadi Degla 1–2 PetrojetLeague Cup
- 27 November 2025Petrojet 1–0 Wadi DeglaCup
- 20 August 2025Wadi Degla 0–1 PetrojetPremier League
- 29 April 2024Petrojet 3–1 Wadi DeglaSecond League
- 12 November 2023Wadi Degla 1–1 PetrojetSecond League
Leading scorers: Petrojet and Wadi Degla
Petrojet
- Mostafa El Badry3 goals1 assist
- Ahmed Bahbah2 goals1 assist
- Mohamed Osman1 goal1 assist
Wadi Degla
- S. Touka2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Petrojet carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.41 for Wadi Degla. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for Petrojet and 1.42 for Wadi Degla. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Petrojet rate 0.75 in attack and 2.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wadi Degla rate 0.65 and 1.58.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Petrojet, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wadi Degla the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Petrojet against 1.42 for Wadi Degla. Petrojet's attack/defence rating is 0.75/2.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.58 for Wadi Degla.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Petrojet at home · Wadi Degla away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Petrojet 5, Wadi Degla 5.
Petrojet score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Wadi Degla have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Petrojet
- at Ceramica Cleopatra21 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- vs Smouha SC31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- at Ghazl El Mehalla25 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- vs Pyramids FC9 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 25%
- at Masr14 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 33%
Wadi Degla
- vs National Bank of Egypt20 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 39%
- at Pyramids FC29 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 25%
- vs Al Ittihad Alexandria24 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- at El Geish8 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- vs Ceramica Cleopatra15 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.