Al Ittihad Alexandria
vs
El Gouna FC
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Al Ittihad Alexandria 1–0 El Gouna FC
The model makes it 37% Al Ittihad Alexandria, 34% draw, 29% El Gouna FC — fair odds of 2.70, 2.94 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Al Ittihad Alexandria 1.00, El Gouna FC 0.79.
Both teams to score: 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 27%, under 2.5: 73%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al Ittihad Alexandria are 6th on 10 points from 5 games; El Gouna FC are 18th on 2 points from 5 games — Premier League.
- Al Ittihad Alexandria are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-0 win away to Al Masry.
- El Gouna FC have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Petrojet.
- Last 6 meetings: El Gouna FC 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 4 April 2026, ended El Gouna FC 0–0 Al Ittihad Alexandria.
All Egyptian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Al Ittihad Alexandria vs El Gouna FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Ittihad Alexandria at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al Ittihad Alexandria vs El Gouna FC
Al Ittihad Alexandria
- W2-0away to Al Masry15 September 2026
- W1-0Asyut Petrol7 September 2026
- W2-0away to Abu Qair Semad2 September 2026
- L1-3Ceramica Cleopatra28 August 2026
- D0-0away to Zamalek SC21 August 2026
El Gouna FC
- L1-2Petrojet16 September 2026
- L0-1away to Pyramids FC9 September 2026
- L0-1El Mokawloon2 September 2026
- D1-1away to Olympic El Qanah28 August 2026
- D1-1Future FC23 August 2026
What these results say
- Al Ittihad Alexandria scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al Ittihad Alexandria kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al Ittihad Alexandria had two goals or fewer.
- El Gouna FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- El Gouna FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for El Gouna FC had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Al Ittihad Alexandria | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
| 18 | El Gouna FC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Ittihad Alexandria vs El Gouna FC
- 4 April 2026El Gouna FC 0–0 Al Ittihad AlexandriaPremier League
- 23 November 2025Al Ittihad Alexandria 0–2 El Gouna FCPremier League
- 11 March 2025El Gouna FC 2–0 Al Ittihad AlexandriaPremier League
- 17 February 2025Al Ittihad Alexandria 1–0 El Gouna FCPremier League
- 27 April 2024El Gouna FC 2–1 Al Ittihad AlexandriaPremier League
- 6 October 2023Al Ittihad Alexandria 2–2 El Gouna FCPremier League
Leading scorers: Al Ittihad Alexandria and El Gouna FC
Al Ittihad Alexandria
- Hossam Hassan2 goals
- J. Ebuka1 goal1 assist
El Gouna FC
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al Ittihad Alexandria carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.3 for El Gouna FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.00 goals for Al Ittihad Alexandria and 0.79 for El Gouna FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Ittihad Alexandria rate 0.61 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; El Gouna FC rate 0.48 and 1.48.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Ittihad Alexandria the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Al Ittihad Alexandria against 0.79 for El Gouna FC. Al Ittihad Alexandria's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.48 for El Gouna FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al Ittihad Alexandria at home · El Gouna FC away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Al Ittihad Alexandria 5, El Gouna FC 5.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Al Ittihad Alexandria
- at Ghazl El Mehalla20 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- vs El Geish30 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- at Wadi Degla24 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- vs Enppi8 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- at Olympic El Qanah15 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 34%
El Gouna FC
- vs Smouha SC19 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- at Asyut Petrol30 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- vs Zamalek SC23 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 22%
- at National Bank of Egypt8 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- vs Abu Qair Semad15 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.