National Bank of Egypt
vs
El Geish
Premier League prediction
Our model says: National Bank of Egypt 1–0 El Geish
The model makes it 37% National Bank of Egypt, 32% draw, 31% El Geish — fair odds of 2.70, 3.13 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: National Bank of Egypt 1.15, El Geish 0.96.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- National Bank of Egypt are 13th on 6 points from 5 games; El Geish are 9th on 7 points from 5 games — Premier League.
- National Bank of Egypt have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Ceramica Cleopatra.
- El Geish are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Smouha SC.
- Last 6 meetings: El Geish 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 9 April 2026, ended El Geish 1–0 National Bank of Egypt.
All Egyptian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: National Bank of Egypt vs El Geish
Has the model earned this number?
It puts National Bank of Egypt at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into National Bank of Egypt vs El Geish
National Bank of Egypt
- L0-2away to Ceramica Cleopatra14 September 2026
- W3-1Ghazl El Mehalla7 September 2026
- W1-0away to Asyut Petrol31 August 2026
- L0-3Zamalek SC26 August 2026
- L0-1away to Abu Qair Semad21 August 2026
El Geish
- L0-1Smouha SC14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Olympic El Qanah7 September 2026
- L0-1Masr1 September 2026
- W3-2away to Petrojet26 August 2026
- W1-0El Mokawloon22 August 2026
What these results say
- National Bank of Egypt conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- El Geish conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for El Geish had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | National Bank of Egypt | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 6 |
| 9 | El Geish | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: National Bank of Egypt vs El Geish
- 9 April 2026El Geish 1–0 National Bank of EgyptPremier League
- 29 August 2025National Bank of Egypt 0–0 El GeishPremier League
- 27 February 2025El Geish 2–2 National Bank of EgyptPremier League
- 17 April 2024National Bank of Egypt 0–1 El GeishPremier League
- 18 September 2023El Geish 2–0 National Bank of EgyptPremier League
- 23 June 2023El Geish 1–1 National Bank of EgyptCup
Leading scorers: National Bank of Egypt and El Geish
National Bank of Egypt
- Osama Faisal2 goals
El Geish
- Islam Mohareb2 goals1 assist
- Mohamed Atef1 goal3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
National Bank of Egypt carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.26 for El Geish. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.15 goals for National Bank of Egypt and 0.96 for El Geish. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
National Bank of Egypt rate 0.65 in attack and 1.88 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; El Geish rate 0.48 and 1.59.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour El Geish, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives National Bank of Egypt the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for National Bank of Egypt against 0.96 for El Geish. National Bank of Egypt's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.59 for El Geish.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
National Bank of Egypt at home · El Geish away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: National Bank of Egypt 5, El Geish 5.
El Geish score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); National Bank of Egypt have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
National Bank of Egypt
- at Wadi Degla20 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- vs Al Masry28 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- at Smouha SC24 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- vs El Gouna FC8 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- at Pyramids FC14 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 23%
El Geish
- vs Pyramids FC20 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 22%
- at Al Ittihad Alexandria30 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- vs Future FC25 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- vs Wadi Degla8 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at Enppi16 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.