Çorum FK
vs
Fenerbahçe
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Çorum FK 1–2 Fenerbahçe
The model makes it 27% Çorum FK, 22% draw, 51% Fenerbahçe — fair odds of 3.70, 4.55 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Çorum FK 1.66, Fenerbahçe 2.42.
Both teams to score: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
One-sided: Fenerbahçe are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Çorum FK's rating is built from 8 Süper Lig matches and Fenerbahçe's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 724 matches.
Key facts
- Çorum FK are 9th on 13 points from 8 games; Fenerbahçe are 3rd on 16 points from 8 games — Süper Lig.
- Çorum FK have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Rizespor.
- Fenerbahçe are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Alanyaspor.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Çorum FK vs Fenerbahçe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fenerbahçe at 51% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Çorum FK vs Fenerbahçe
Çorum FK
Süper Lig
- W2-1Rizespor16 October 2026
- W3-0away to Gaziantep FK11 October 2026
- L1-2Alanyaspor19 September 2026
- W5-1away to Samsunspor12 September 2026
- W3-0Eyüpspor6 September 2026
Fenerbahçe
Süper Lig
- W3-0Alanyaspor17 October 2026
- W3-0away to Rizespor10 October 2026
- W8-0Eyüpspor20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Gaziantep FK14 September 2026
- L1-2Beşiktaş5 September 2026
What these results say
- Çorum FK scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Çorum FK had three goals or more.
- Çorum FK won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fenerbahçe scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fenerbahçe kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Fenerbahçe had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Çorum FK | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Fenerbahçe | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 6 | +16 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Çorum FK and Fenerbahçe
Çorum FK
GoalsAssists
- A. Kyziridis44
- C. Ramírez41
- C. Ünder41
Fenerbahçe
GoalsAssists
- V. Muriqi71
- M. Greenwood42
- O. Aydın23
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Çorum FK carry a model rating of 6.76 against 7.06 for Fenerbahçe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Çorum FK and 2.42 for Fenerbahçe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Çorum FK rate 1.08 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fenerbahçe rate 1.39 and 0.93.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Çorum FK a 1.1% chance of the title and Fenerbahçe 29.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fenerbahçe the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Çorum FK against 2.42 for Fenerbahçe. Çorum FK's attack/defence rating is 1.08/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.39/0.93 for Fenerbahçe.
How the model reaches 51% for Fenerbahçe to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Fenerbahçe to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Çorum FK's ratings add 6 points and Fenerbahçe's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Çorum FK's ratings37%+6
- Fenerbahçe's ratings51%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Çorum FK at home · Fenerbahçe away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Çorum FKFenerbahçe
Çorum FK are 9th after 8 Süper Lig matches (between 1st and 16th so far); Fenerbahçe are 3rd after 8 (between 3rd and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Çorum FK 8, Fenerbahçe 8.
Çorum FK score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Fenerbahçe have let in 1 there.
Fenerbahçe score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Çorum FK have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Çorum FK
- at Başakşehir23 Nov · Süper Ligwin 28%
- vs Kocaelispor29 Nov · Süper Ligwin 49%
- at Trabzonspor6 Dec · Süper Ligwin 21%
Fenerbahçe
- at Kocaelispor21 Nov · Süper Ligwin 52%
- at Shakhtar Donetsk25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.