Bahia vs Corinthians Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Bahia 1-1 Corinthians.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Bahia, 25% draw, 32% Corinthians — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bahia at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bahia vs Corinthians
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1RonaldoG
- 31Román GómezD
- 33David DuarteD
- 21Santiago Ramos MingoD
- 5Nicolás AcevedoM
- 7AdemirM
- 11Rodrigo NestorM
- 6Jean LucasM
- 66José GuilhermeM
- 9Alejo VélizF
- 16Erick PulgaF
- 46Luciano JubaD
- 57Kauê FurquimM
- 12Willian JoséF
- 10Everton RibeiroM
- 23Mateo SanabriaF
- 17Guido HerreraG
- 4KanuD
- 44Marcos VictorD
- 77Ruan PabloF
- 1Hugo SouzaG
- 2MatheuzinhoD
- 3Gabriel PaulistaD
- 13Gustavo HenriqueD
- 26Fabrizio AngileriD
- 14RanieleM
- 49André LuizM
- 37Kaio CésarM
- 8Rodrigo GarroM
- 7Breno BidonM
- 9Yuri AlbertoF
- 20Pedro MilansD
- 52Zakaria LabyadF
- 29AllanM
- 23Matheus PereiraM
- 19André CarrilloM
- 51KauêG
- 4João Pedro TchocaD
- 5André RamalhoD
- 61DieguinhoM
Form going into Bahia vs Corinthians
Bahia
- D1-1away to Atletico Mineiro21 July 2026
- W2-0Chapecoense17 July 2026
Corinthians
- W3-0Remo23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 42 | 33 | +9 | 46 |
| 13 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bahia vs Corinthians
- 26 July 2026Bahia 1–1 CorinthiansSerie A
- 28 January 2026Corinthians 1–2 BahiaSerie A
- 17 August 2025Corinthians 1–2 BahiaSerie A
- 30 March 2025Bahia 1–1 CorinthiansSerie A
- 3 December 2024Corinthians 3–0 BahiaSerie A
- 21 July 2024Bahia 0–1 CorinthiansSerie A
Leading scorers: Bahia and Corinthians
Bahia
- Luciano Juba8 goals1 assists
Corinthians
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.