Bahia vs Corinthians Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Bahia 1-1 Corinthians.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Bahia, 25% draw, 32% Corinthians — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bahia at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bahia vs Corinthians
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1RonaldoG
- 31Román GómezD
- 33David DuarteD
- 21Santiago Ramos MingoD
- 5Nicolás AcevedoM
- 7AdemirM
- 11Rodrigo NestorM
- 6Jean LucasM
- 66José GuilhermeM
- 9Alejo VélizF
- 16Erick PulgaF
- 46Luciano JubaD
- 57Kauê FurquimM
- 12Willian JoséF
- 10Everton RibeiroM
- 23Mateo SanabriaF
- 17Guido HerreraG
- 4KanuD
- 44Marcos VictorD
- 77Ruan PabloF
- 1Hugo SouzaG
- 2MatheuzinhoD
- 3Gabriel PaulistaD
- 13Gustavo HenriqueD
- 26Fabrizio AngileriD
- 14RanieleM
- 49André LuizM
- 37Kaio CésarM
- 8Rodrigo GarroM
- 7Breno BidonM
- 9Yuri AlbertoF
- 20Pedro MilansD
- 52Zakaria LabyadF
- 29AllanM
- 23Matheus PereiraM
- 19André CarrilloM
- 51KauêG
- 4João Pedro TchocaD
- 5André RamalhoD
- 61DieguinhoM
Form going into Bahia vs Corinthians
Bahia
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Atletico Mineiro21 July 2026
- W2-0Chapecoense17 July 2026
Corinthians
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Remo23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bahia | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 48 | 42 | +6 | 53 |
| 18 | Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 34 | 42 | -8 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bahia vs Corinthians
- 28 January 2026Corinthians 1–2 BahiaSerie A
- 17 August 2025Corinthians 1–2 BahiaSerie A
- 30 March 2025Bahia 1–1 CorinthiansSerie A
- 3 December 2024Corinthians 3–0 BahiaSerie A
- 21 July 2024Bahia 0–1 CorinthiansSerie A
Leading scorers: Bahia and Corinthians
Bahia
GoalsAssists
- Luciano Juba111
Corinthians
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 34 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bahia and Corinthians drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Bahia at 43% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: F. Angileri 8' for Corinthians, David Duarte 45+4' for Bahia. On expected goals it finished 0.65–0.17.