Portland Timbers vs Real Salt Lake Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Portland Timbers 2-1 Real Salt Lake.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Portland Timbers, 22% draw, 47% Real Salt Lake — fair odds of 3.23, 4.55 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Salt Lake at 47% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Portland Timbers vs Real Salt Lake
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 41James PantemisG
- 5Brandon ByeD
- 20Finn SurmanD
- 4Kamal MillerD
- 27Jímer ForyD
- 21Diego CharáM
- 7Ariel LassiterM
- 17Cole BassettM
- 10David Pereira Da CostaM
- 99Kristoffer VeldeM
- 9Felipe MoraF
- 11Antony AlvesF
- 30José CaicedoM
- 28Alexander AravenaF
- 80Joao OrtízM
- 25Trey MuseG
- 23Ian SmithD
- 6Alex BonetigD
- 15Eric MillerD
- 53Sawyer JuraD
- 1Rafael CabralG
- 2DeAndre YedlinD
- 26Philip QuintonD
- 4Lukas EngelD
- 72Zavier GozoM
- 6Stijn SpieringsM
- 92Noel CaliskanM
- 8Juan SanabriaM
- 10Diego LunaF
- 22Sergi SolansF
- 9Morgan GuilavoguiF
- 29Sam JunquaD
- 21Juan Jose AriasD
- 12Saba LobzhanidzeM
- 17Victor OlatunjiF
- 98Alexandros KatranisD
- 31Mason StajduharG
- 23Zach BoothM
- 27Griffin DillonM
- 7Pablo RuízM
Form going into Portland Timbers vs Real Salt Lake
Portland Timbers
- D2-2FC Dallas23 July 2026
- W5-1away to Seattle Sounders17 July 2026
Real Salt Lake
- L1-3away to Los Angeles FC23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 32 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Portland Timbers vs Real Salt Lake
- 26 July 2026Portland Timbers 2–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 2 May 2026Real Salt Lake 2–0 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 23 October 2025Portland Timbers 3–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 17 July 2025Portland Timbers 0–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 15 May 2025Real Salt Lake 0–0 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 22 September 2024Real Salt Lake 3–3 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer