Gremio vs Fluminense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Gremio 1-1 Fluminense.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Gremio, 30% draw, 33% Fluminense — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gremio at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gremio vs Fluminense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 7Cristian PavónD
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 4Walter KannemannD
- 23MarlonD
- 19Erick NoriegaM
- 21TetêM
- 20Mathias VillasantiM
- 5Juan NardoniM
- 9Francis AmuzuM
- 95Carlos ViníciusF
- 24Thiago BeltrameG
- 54Pedro GabrielD
- 27Diego CaitoD
- 43Luis GuedesD
- 3Wagner LeonardoD
- 37Gabriel MecF
- 65Riquelme FreitasM
- 17DodiM
- 99José EnamoradoF
- 1FábioG
- 23GugaD
- 3Thiago SilvaD
- 22Juan Pablo FreytesD
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 8MartinelliM
- 35HérculesM
- 90Kevin SernaM
- 32Luciano AcostaM
- 17Agustín CanobbioM
- 7HulkF
- 6RenêD
- 27Marcelo PitalugaG
- 2Samuel XavierD
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 4IgnácioD
- 46Júlio FidelisD
- 94OtávioM
- 28Riquelme FelipeF
- 30Yeferson SoteldoF
Form going into Gremio vs Fluminense
Gremio
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Mirassol17 July 2026
Fluminense
All competitions we cover
- D1-1RB Bragantino17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Gremio | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 37 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 33 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 52 | 42 | +10 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gremio vs Fluminense
- 28 January 2026Fluminense 2–1 GremioSerie A
- 3 December 2025Gremio 1–2 FluminenseSerie A
- 3 August 2025Fluminense 1–0 GremioSerie A
- 2 November 2024Fluminense 2–2 GremioSerie A
- 20 August 2024Fluminense 2–1 GremioCONMEBOL Libertadores
Leading scorers: Gremio and Fluminense
Gremio
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Vinícius111
Fluminense
GoalsAssists
- John Kennedy91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gremio and Fluminense drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Gremio at 37% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Hulk (penalty) 65' for Fluminense, Diego Caito 89' for Gremio. On expected goals it finished 0.49–0.10.