26 July 2026, 21:30 UTC

Gremio vs Fluminense Serie A prediction & result

Porto Alegre
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Gremio 1-1 Fluminense.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Gremio, 30% draw, 33% Fluminense — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Gremio at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
Hercules
13'
Guga
21'
🔁Guilherme Aranaout: Rene
65'
⚽Hulk (pen)
69'
Thiago Silva
🔁C. Pavonout: Diego Caito
69'
🔁E. Noriegaout: M. Braithwaite
69'
75'
🔁Hulkout: G. Cano
75'
🔁L. Acostaout: Nonato
Carlos Vinicius
76'
🔁F. Amuzuout: J. Cabral
78'
🔁Teteout: J. Enamorado
78'
79'
A. Canobbio
🔁Marlonout: Pedro Gabriel
80'
87'
🔁K. Sernaout: Y. Soteldo
87'
🔁Herculesout: Ignacio
⚽Diego Caitoassist: J. Cabral
89'
J. Nardoni
90+2'

Match stats — Gremio vs Fluminense

44%Possession56%
6Shots3
2On target1
2Corners1
0.49xG0.1

Goals against chances

Gremio1 from 0.49 xGmore than the chances were worth
Fluminense1 from 0.10 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Gremio 4-1-4-1
  • 12Gabriel GrandoG
  • 7Cristian PavónD
  • 6Gustavo MartinsD
  • 4Walter KannemannD
  • 23MarlonD
  • 19Erick NoriegaM
  • 21TetêM
  • 20Mathias VillasantiM
  • 5Juan NardoniM
  • 9Francis AmuzuM
  • 95Carlos ViníciusF
Substitutes
  • 24Thiago BeltrameG
  • 54Pedro GabrielD
  • 27Diego CaitoD
  • 43Luis GuedesD
  • 3Wagner LeonardoD
  • 37Gabriel MecF
  • 65Riquelme FreitasM
  • 17DodiM
  • 99José EnamoradoF
Coach: Luis Castro
Fluminense 4-2-3-1
  • 1FábioG
  • 23GugaD
  • 3Thiago SilvaD
  • 22Juan Pablo FreytesD
  • 13Guilherme AranaD
  • 8MartinelliM
  • 35HérculesM
  • 90Kevin SernaM
  • 32Luciano AcostaM
  • 17Agustín CanobbioM
  • 7HulkF
Substitutes
  • 6RenêD
  • 27Marcelo PitalugaG
  • 2Samuel XavierD
  • 21Igor RabelloD
  • 4IgnácioD
  • 46Júlio FidelisD
  • 94OtávioM
  • 28Riquelme FelipeF
  • 30Yeferson SoteldoF
Coach: Francisco Zubeldia Luis

Form going into Gremio vs Fluminense

Gremio

  • L1-2away to Mirassol17 July 2026

Fluminense

  • D1-1RB Bragantino17 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Gremio2677122835-728
5Fluminense2712964135+645

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Gremio vs Fluminense

  • 26 July 2026Gremio 1–1 FluminenseSerie A
  • 28 January 2026Fluminense 2–1 GremioSerie A
  • 3 December 2025Gremio 1–2 FluminenseSerie A
  • 3 August 2025Fluminense 1–0 GremioSerie A
  • 2 November 2024Fluminense 2–2 GremioSerie A
  • 20 August 2024Fluminense 2–1 GremioCONMEBOL Libertadores

Leading scorers: Gremio and Fluminense

Gremio

  • Carlos Vinícius10 goals1 assists

Fluminense

  • John Kennedy9 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.