San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles Galaxy Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 Los Angeles Galaxy.
Before kick-off the model made it 23% San Jose Earthquakes, 23% draw, 54% Los Angeles Galaxy — fair odds of 4.35, 4.35 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Los Angeles Galaxy at 54% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles Galaxy
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Angus GunnG
- 28Benjamin KikanovićD
- 5Daniel MunieD
- 18Reid RobertsD
- 2Jamar RickettsD
- 40Jonathan GonzalezM
- 34Beau LerouxM
- 16Jack SkahanM
- 20Nick FernandezM
- 11Timo WernerM
- 7Ousseni BoudaF
- 6Ian HarkesM
- 79Darius JohnsonF
- 3Paul MarieD
- 31Francesco MontaliG
- 4Dave RomneyD
- 25Max FlorianiD
- 17Jack JasinskiD
- 21Noel BuckM
- 87Vitor CostaD
- 12JT MarcinkowskiG
- 2Miki YamaneD
- 4Maya YoshidaD
- 15Justin HaakD
- 3Julián AudeD
- 26Harbor MillerM
- 6Edwin CerrilloM
- 8Lucas SanabriaM
- 21Robert TaylorM
- 28Joseph PaintsilF
- 18Marco ReusF
- 14John NelsonD
- 22Elijah WynderM
- 16Isaiah ParenteM
- 1Novak MićovićG
- 20Chris RindovD
- 60Sebastian HernandezM
- 76Troy ElgersmaM
Form going into San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles Galaxy
San Jose Earthquakes
All competitions we cover
- L0-4Orlando City SC23 July 2026
Los Angeles Galaxy
All competitions we cover
- L1-3St. Louis City23 July 2026
- L0-3Los Angeles FC18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | San Jose Earthquakes | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 54 | 47 | +7 | 49 |
| 10 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 45 | 54 | -9 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles Galaxy
- 29 June 2025San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 29 May 2025Los Angeles Galaxy 0–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 1 August 2024San Jose Earthquakes 1–2 Los Angeles GalaxyLeagues Cup
- 30 June 2024San Jose Earthquakes 0–3 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 22 April 2024Los Angeles Galaxy 4–3 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: San Jose Earthquakes and Los Angeles Galaxy
San Jose Earthquakes
GoalsAssists
- P. Judd162
Los Angeles Galaxy
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 45 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
San Jose Earthquakes and Los Angeles Galaxy drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Los Angeles Galaxy at 54% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: J. Paintsil 13' for Los Angeles Galaxy, R. Roberts 62' for San Jose Earthquakes. On expected goals it finished 3.27–1.28.