San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles Galaxy Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 Los Angeles Galaxy.
Before kick-off the model made it 23% San Jose Earthquakes, 23% draw, 54% Los Angeles Galaxy — fair odds of 4.35, 4.35 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Los Angeles Galaxy at 54% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles Galaxy
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Angus GunnG
- 28Benjamin KikanovićD
- 5Daniel MunieD
- 18Reid RobertsD
- 2Jamar RickettsD
- 40Jonathan GonzalezM
- 34Beau LerouxM
- 16Jack SkahanM
- 20Nick FernandezM
- 11Timo WernerM
- 7Ousseni BoudaF
- 6Ian HarkesM
- 79Darius JohnsonF
- 3Paul MarieD
- 31Francesco MontaliG
- 4Dave RomneyD
- 25Max FlorianiD
- 17Jack JasinskiD
- 21Noel BuckM
- 87Vitor CostaD
- 12JT MarcinkowskiG
- 2Miki YamaneD
- 4Maya YoshidaD
- 15Justin HaakD
- 3Julián AudeD
- 26Harbor MillerM
- 6Edwin CerrilloM
- 8Lucas SanabriaM
- 21Robert TaylorM
- 28Joseph PaintsilF
- 18Marco ReusF
- 14John NelsonD
- 22Elijah WynderM
- 16Isaiah ParenteM
- 1Novak MićovićG
- 20Chris RindovD
- 60Sebastian HernandezM
- 76Troy ElgersmaM
Form going into San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles Galaxy
San Jose Earthquakes
- L0-4Orlando City SC23 July 2026
Los Angeles Galaxy
- L1-3St. Louis City23 July 2026
- L0-3Los Angeles FC18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 41 |
| 10 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles Galaxy
- 26 July 2026San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 29 June 2025San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 29 May 2025Los Angeles Galaxy 0–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 1 August 2024San Jose Earthquakes 1–2 Los Angeles GalaxyLeagues Cup
- 30 June 2024San Jose Earthquakes 0–3 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 22 April 2024Los Angeles Galaxy 4–3 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: San Jose Earthquakes and Los Angeles Galaxy
San Jose Earthquakes
- P. Judd12 goals2 assists
Los Angeles Galaxy
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 31 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.