Cruzeiro vs Botafogo Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Cruzeiro 0-1 Botafogo.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Cruzeiro, 24% draw, 35% Botafogo — fair odds of 2.44, 4.17 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cruzeiro at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cruzeiro vs Botafogo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 81Otávio CostaG
- 23FagnerD
- 15Fabrício BrunoD
- 34Jonathan JesusD
- 27Gabriel RojasD
- 11MarquinhosM
- 29Lucas RomeroM
- 7Matheus HenriqueM
- 17Luis SinisterraM
- 9Bruno RodriguesF
- 19Kaio JorgeF
- 94WandersonF
- 43João MarceloD
- 99Keny ArroyoF
- 12William FurtadoD
- 2Kauã MoraesD
- 51Vitor LamounierG
- 25Lucas VillalbaD
- 16Lucas SilvaM
- 57Rayan LelisF
- 17WarlesonG
- 2VitinhoD
- 34Gabriel JustinoD
- 5Nahuel FerraresiD
- 13Alex TellesD
- 75HuguinhoM
- 6Cristian MedinaM
- 10Álvaro MontoroM
- 8Danilo SantosM
- 11Matheus MartinsM
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 59Kauan ToledoM
- 23Santiago RodríguezM
- 37Kadir BarríaF
- 21MarçalD
- 77Lucas VillalbaF
- 12Gabriel BatistaG
- 4Mateo PonteD
- 29PaulinhoD
- 33Lucas MonzónD
Form going into Cruzeiro vs Botafogo
Cruzeiro
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Internacional23 July 2026
Botafogo
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Vitoria23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 52 | 46 | +6 | 57 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 45 | 53 | -8 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cruzeiro vs Botafogo
- 30 January 2026Botafogo 4–0 CruzeiroSerie A
- 4 December 2025Cruzeiro 2–2 BotafogoSerie A
- 3 August 2025Botafogo 0–2 CruzeiroSerie A
- 28 July 2024Botafogo 0–3 CruzeiroSerie A
- 14 April 2024Cruzeiro 3–2 BotafogoSerie A
Leading scorers: Cruzeiro and Botafogo
Cruzeiro
GoalsAssists
- Kaio Jorge122
- Matheus Pereira97
Botafogo
GoalsAssists
- Danilo Santos102
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Botafogo won 1–0 at Cruzeiro. The model had leaned towards a win for Cruzeiro at 41% and given a win for Botafogo 35%. The goal: G. Justino 41' for Botafogo. On expected goals it finished 1.59–0.40.