26 July 2026, 19:00 UTC

Cruzeiro vs Botafogo Serie A prediction & result

Belo Horizonte
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Cruzeiro 0-1 Botafogo.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Cruzeiro, 24% draw, 35% Botafogo — fair odds of 2.44, 4.17 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Cruzeiro at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

26'
Warleson
35'
Huguinho
🔁L. Sinisterraout: Wanderson
39'
41'
⚽G. Justinoassist: Alex Telles
Fagner
45+3'
45+4'
N. Ferraresi
Jonathan Jesus
56'
🔁Fabricio Brunoout: Joao Marcelo
60'
🔁Marquinhosout: K. Arroyo
60'
69'
🔁Danilo Santosout: Kauan Toledo
🔁Fagnerout: William Furtado
77'
🔁G. Rojasout: Kaua Moraes
77'
82'
🔁A. Montoroout: S. Rodriguez
82'
🔁Arthur Cabralout: K. Barria
88'
Alex Telles
90'
🔁Alex Tellesout: Marcal
90'
🔁Matheus Martinsout: L. M. Villalba Jaume
90+4'
K. Barria
K. Arroyo
90+7'
Kaio Jorge
90+8'

Match stats — Cruzeiro vs Botafogo

61%Possession39%
16Shots8
6On target4
9Corners1
1.59xG0.4

Goals against chances

Cruzeiro0 from 1.59 xGless than the chances were worth
Botafogo1 from 0.40 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cruzeiro 4-4-2
  • 81Otávio CostaG
  • 23FagnerD
  • 15Fabrício BrunoD
  • 34Jonathan JesusD
  • 27Gabriel RojasD
  • 11MarquinhosM
  • 29Lucas RomeroM
  • 7Matheus HenriqueM
  • 17Luis SinisterraM
  • 9Bruno RodriguesF
  • 19Kaio JorgeF
Substitutes
  • 94WandersonF
  • 43João MarceloD
  • 99Keny ArroyoF
  • 12William FurtadoD
  • 2Kauã MoraesD
  • 51Vitor LamounierG
  • 25Lucas VillalbaD
  • 16Lucas SilvaM
  • 57Rayan LelisF
Coach: Jorge Artur
Botafogo 4-2-3-1
  • 17WarlesonG
  • 2VitinhoD
  • 34Gabriel JustinoD
  • 5Nahuel FerraresiD
  • 13Alex TellesD
  • 75HuguinhoM
  • 6Cristian MedinaM
  • 10Álvaro MontoroM
  • 8Danilo SantosM
  • 11Matheus MartinsM
  • 19Arthur CabralF
Substitutes
  • 59Kauan ToledoM
  • 23Santiago RodríguezM
  • 37Kadir BarríaF
  • 21MarçalD
  • 77Lucas VillalbaF
  • 12Gabriel BatistaG
  • 4Mateo PonteD
  • 29PaulinhoD
  • 33Lucas MonzónD
Coach: Franclim Carvalho

Form going into Cruzeiro vs Botafogo

Cruzeiro

  • W2-1away to Internacional23 July 2026

Botafogo

  • D0-0Vitoria23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Cruzeiro2712693939042
14Botafogo2688103841-332

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cruzeiro vs Botafogo

  • 26 July 2026Cruzeiro 0–1 BotafogoSerie A
  • 30 January 2026Botafogo 4–0 CruzeiroSerie A
  • 4 December 2025Cruzeiro 2–2 BotafogoSerie A
  • 3 August 2025Botafogo 0–2 CruzeiroSerie A
  • 28 July 2024Botafogo 0–3 CruzeiroSerie A
  • 14 April 2024Cruzeiro 3–2 BotafogoSerie A

Leading scorers: Cruzeiro and Botafogo

Cruzeiro

  • Matheus Pereira8 goals4 assists
  • Kaio Jorge7 goals

Botafogo

  • Danilo Santos7 goals2 assists
  • Arthur Cabral7 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.