Flamengo vs Sao Paulo Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Flamengo 1-1 Sao Paulo.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% Flamengo, 21% draw, 23% Sao Paulo — fair odds of 1.79, 4.76 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Flamengo at 56% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Flamengo vs Sao Paulo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Agustín RossiG
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 44VitãoD
- 4Léo PereiraD
- 26Alex SandroD
- 5Erick PulgarM
- 21JorginhoM
- 99LorranM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 27Bruno HenriqueM
- 9PedroF
- 42AndrewG
- 2Guillermo VarelaD
- 61João VictorD
- 77Johnny GoesD
- 13DaniloD
- 6Ayrton LucasD
- 11EvertonF
- 8Saúl ÑíguezM
- 10Giorgian de ArrascaetaM
- 23RafaelG
- 19Lucas RamonD
- 5Robert ArboledaD
- 54Luis OsorioD
- 18WendellD
- 37ArturM
- 29Pablo MaiaM
- 94DanielzinhoM
- 8Marcos AntônioM
- 9Jonathan CalleriF
- 10LucianoF
- 31Carlos CoronelG
- 35SabinoD
- 56Nicolas BosshardtD
- 53IsacD
- 20Aurélio ButaD
- 27Victor SáF
- 34TetêF
- 11FerreirinhaF
- 48Djhordney FerreiraM
Form going into Flamengo vs Sao Paulo
Flamengo
All competitions we cover
- W4-0away to Chapecoense23 July 2026
Sao Paulo
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Atletico Paranaense23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 33 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 68 | 28 | +40 | 73 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Flamengo vs Sao Paulo
- 29 January 2026Sao Paulo 2–1 FlamengoSerie A
- 6 November 2025Sao Paulo 2–2 FlamengoSerie A
- 12 July 2025Flamengo 2–0 Sao PauloSerie A
- 19 January 2025Sao Paulo 0–0 FlamengoFriendlies Clubs
- 4 August 2024Sao Paulo 1–0 FlamengoSerie A
Leading scorers: Flamengo and Sao Paulo
Flamengo
GoalsAssists
- Pedro186
- Samuel Lino119
Sao Paulo
GoalsAssists
- J. Calleri102
- Luciano91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Flamengo and Sao Paulo drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Flamengo at 56% and given a draw 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Leo Pereira 57' for Flamengo, Jonathan Calleri 70' for Sao Paulo. On expected goals it finished 0.24–0.15.