26 July 2026, 21:30 UTC

Flamengo vs Sao Paulo Serie A prediction & result

Rio de Janeiro
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Flamengo 1-1 Sao Paulo.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% Flamengo, 21% draw, 23% Sao Paulo — fair odds of 1.79, 4.76 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Flamengo at 56% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Leo Pereiraassist: Jorginho
57'
🔁Lorranout: G. de Arrascaeta
58'
Alex Sandro
63'
66'
🔁Arturout: Ferreira
66'
🔁Danielzinhoout: Victor Sa
69'
Wendell
70'
⚽Jonathan Calleriassist: Luis Osorio
🔁Bruno Henriqueout: Everton
79'
🔁E. Pulgarout: Evertton Araujo
87'
🔁Pedroout: Wallace Yan
87'
88'
Jonathan Calleri
90'
🔁Lucianoout: Andre Silva
•Samuel Lino
90+1'
90+5'
🔁Wendellout: Sabino
90+11'
Marcos Antonio

Match stats — Flamengo vs Sao Paulo

50%Possession50%
3Shots2
1On target0
0Corners1
0.24xG0.15

Goals against chances

Flamengo1 from 0.24 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sao Paulo1 from 0.15 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Flamengo 4-2-3-1
  • 1Agustín RossiG
  • 22Emerson RoyalD
  • 44VitãoD
  • 4Léo PereiraD
  • 26Alex SandroD
  • 5Erick PulgarM
  • 21JorginhoM
  • 99LorranM
  • 16Samuel LinoM
  • 27Bruno HenriqueM
  • 9PedroF
Substitutes
  • 42AndrewG
  • 2Guillermo VarelaD
  • 61João VictorD
  • 77Johnny GoesD
  • 13DaniloD
  • 6Ayrton LucasD
  • 11EvertonF
  • 8Saúl ÑíguezM
  • 10Giorgian de ArrascaetaM
Coach: Leonardo Jardim
Sao Paulo 4-4-2
  • 23RafaelG
  • 19Lucas RamonD
  • 5Robert ArboledaD
  • 54Luis OsorioD
  • 18WendellD
  • 37ArturM
  • 29Pablo MaiaM
  • 94DanielzinhoM
  • 8Marcos AntônioM
  • 9Jonathan CalleriF
  • 10LucianoF
Substitutes
  • 31Carlos CoronelG
  • 35SabinoD
  • 56Nicolas BosshardtD
  • 53IsacD
  • 20Aurélio ButaD
  • 27Victor SáF
  • 34TetêF
  • 11FerreirinhaF
  • 48Djhordney FerreiraM
Coach: Junior Dorival

Form going into Flamengo vs Sao Paulo

Flamengo

  • W4-0away to Chapecoense23 July 2026

Sao Paulo

  • L1-2Atletico Paranaense23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Flamengo2717645322+3157
11Sao Paulo2696113130+133

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Flamengo vs Sao Paulo

  • 26 July 2026Flamengo 1–1 Sao PauloSerie A
  • 29 January 2026Sao Paulo 2–1 FlamengoSerie A
  • 6 November 2025Sao Paulo 2–2 FlamengoSerie A
  • 12 July 2025Flamengo 2–0 Sao PauloSerie A
  • 19 January 2025Sao Paulo 0–0 FlamengoFriendlies Clubs
  • 4 August 2024Sao Paulo 1–0 FlamengoSerie A

Leading scorers: Flamengo and Sao Paulo

Flamengo

  • Pedro15 goals5 assists
  • Samuel Lino9 goals7 assists

Sao Paulo

  • Luciano8 goals2 assists
  • J. Calleri7 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.