Hapoel Tel Aviv
vs
Atalanta
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 8% Hapoel Tel Aviv, 14% draw, 78% Atalanta — fair odds of 12.50, 7.14 and 1.28. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Hapoel Tel Aviv 0.89, Atalanta 2.90.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
A clear gap in the ratings
Hapoel Tel Aviv carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.95 for Atalanta. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Hapoel Tel Aviv W-D-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 0.89 goals for Hapoel Tel Aviv and 2.90 for Atalanta. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hapoel Tel Aviv rate 0.53 in attack and 1.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atalanta rate 1.08 and 0.89.
That points to 73% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-2 (10%), 0-3 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 320 correct results out of 666 settled predictions (48%), with 64 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atalanta the highest probability at 78%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Hapoel Tel Aviv against 2.9 for Atalanta. Hapoel Tel Aviv's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.08/0.89 for Atalanta.