Plzen
vs
FK Crvena Zvezda
UEFA Europa League prediction
The model makes it 62% Plzen, 22% draw, 16% FK Crvena Zvezda — fair odds of 1.61, 4.55 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Plzen 1.95, FK Crvena Zvezda 0.87.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Plzen
- D5-5away to Teplice8 August 2026
- D1-1Zbrojovka Brno1 August 2026
- L1-3Slovan Liberec25 July 2026
FK Crvena Zvezda
- W2-0Novi Pazar8 August 2026
- W3-1Vojvodina26 July 2026
- W5-0Macva17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Plzen | Czech Liga | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 2 |
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | Super Liga | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 9 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables
Leading scorers
Plzen
- C. Kabongo2 goals
FK Crvena Zvezda
- V. Kostov3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Plzen carry a model rating of 6.78 against 6.51 for FK Crvena Zvezda. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Plzen L-D-D; FK Crvena Zvezda W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.95 goals for Plzen and 0.87 for FK Crvena Zvezda. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Plzen rate 0.77 in attack and 0.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FK Crvena Zvezda rate 0.68 and 1.34.
That points to 53% for over two and a half goals and 50% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 320 correct results out of 663 settled predictions (48%), with 64 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Plzen the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Plzen against 0.87 for FK Crvena Zvezda. Plzen's attack/defence rating is 0.77/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.34 for FK Crvena Zvezda.