Ajax
vs
FC Sion
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 62% Ajax, 22% draw, 16% FC Sion — fair odds of 1.61, 4.55 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Ajax 2.04, FC Sion 0.93.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Ajax
- W2-0away to PEC Zwolle9 August 2026
FC Sion
- W3-2FC Vaduz9 August 2026
- W3-0FC Luzern2 August 2026
- L2-4away to BSC Young Boys26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ajax | Eredivisie | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | FC Sion | Super League | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 6 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables
Leading scorers
Ajax
- J. Brandt1 goals
- J. Mokio1 goals
FC Sion
- Winsley Boteli Mokango2 goals1 assists
- D. Rrudhani2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Ajax carry a model rating of 6.84 against 6.59 for FC Sion. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Ajax W; FC Sion L-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.04 goals for Ajax and 0.93 for FC Sion. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ajax rate 0.89 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Sion rate 0.72 and 1.21.
That points to 57% for over two and a half goals and 53% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (11%), 1-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 336 correct results out of 706 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ajax the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Ajax against 0.93 for FC Sion. Ajax's attack/defence rating is 0.89/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.21 for FC Sion.