Tre Fiori
vs
Drita
The model makes it 26% Tre Fiori, 23% draw, 51% Drita — fair odds of 3.85, 4.35 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Tre Fiori 1.30, Drita 1.90.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
The two sides
Tre Fiori carry a model rating of 5.96 against 6.29 for Drita. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Tre Fiori L-L; Drita D-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for Tre Fiori and 1.90 for Drita. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tre Fiori rate 0.39 in attack and 2.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Drita rate 0.58 and 1.77.
That points to 62% for over two and a half goals and 62% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Drita the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.3 expected goals for Tre Fiori against 1.9 for Drita. Tre Fiori's attack/defence rating is 0.39/2.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.77 for Drita.