Aubagne
vs
Le Puy Foot
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Aubagne 1–2 Le Puy Foot
The model makes it 34% Aubagne, 29% draw, 37% Le Puy Foot — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Aubagne 1.33, Le Puy Foot 1.41.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Aubagne and Le Puy Foot are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Aubagne are 16th on 7 points from 8 games; Le Puy Foot are 12th on 10 points from 8 games — Ligue 3.
- Aubagne have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win away to Fleury 91.
- Le Puy Foot have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Valenciennes.
- Last 5 meetings: Aubagne 3 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 April 2026, ended Le Puy Foot 1–2 Aubagne.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Aubagne vs Le Puy Foot
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Le Puy Foot at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Aubagne vs Le Puy Foot
Aubagne
- W2-1away to Fleury 9126 September 2026
- L0-1away to Rouen19 September 2026
- L1-2Concarneau12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Gobelins5 September 2026
- W2-0Bourg-en-bresse 0129 August 2026
Le Puy Foot
- L1-2away to Valenciennes26 September 2026
- W4-1Villefranche19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Quevilly12 September 2026
- D1-1Orleans5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Cannes29 August 2026
What these results say
- Le Puy Foot conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Le Puy Foot failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Le Puy Foot scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Aubagne | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Le Puy Foot | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Aubagne vs Le Puy Foot
- 10 April 2026Le Puy Foot 1–2 AubagneLigue 3
- 7 November 2025Aubagne 1–4 Le Puy FootLigue 3
- 20 April 2024Le Puy Foot 1–2 AubagneNational 2 - Group A
- 2 December 2023Aubagne 0–0 Le Puy FootNational 2 - Group A
- 16 November 2013Aubagne 2–0 Le Puy FootCoupe de France
The two sides
Aubagne carry a model rating of 6.01 against 6.19 for Le Puy Foot. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Aubagne and 1.41 for Le Puy Foot. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aubagne rate 0.40 in attack and 2.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Le Puy Foot rate 0.54 and 2.04.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Aubagne a 0% chance of the title and Le Puy Foot 1.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Le Puy Foot the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Aubagne against 1.41 for Le Puy Foot. Aubagne's attack/defence rating is 0.4/2.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/2.04 for Le Puy Foot.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Aubagne at home · Le Puy Foot away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Aubagne 8, Le Puy Foot 8.
Aubagne score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Le Puy Foot have let in 4 there.
Le Puy Foot score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Aubagne have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Aubagne
- at Versailles31 Oct · Ligue 3win 23%
- vs Amiens7 Nov · Ligue 3win 32%
- at Cannes21 Nov · Ligue 3win 18%
- vs Orleans5 Dec · Ligue 3win 36%
Le Puy Foot
- vs Caen31 Oct · Ligue 3win 41%
- at Bourg-en-bresse 017 Nov · Ligue 3win 42%
- vs Gobelins21 Nov · Ligue 3win 48%
- at Concarneau5 Dec · Ligue 3win 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.