Quevilly
vs
Orleans
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Quevilly 1–0 Orleans
The model makes it 41% Quevilly, 29% draw, 30% Orleans — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Quevilly 1.49, Orleans 1.10.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Quevilly are 11th on 10 points from 8 games; Orleans are 13th on 9 points from 9 games — Ligue 3.
- Quevilly are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Amiens.
- Orleans have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Bastia.
- Last 6 meetings: Quevilly 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 24 April 2026, ended Orleans 0–3 Quevilly.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Quevilly vs Orleans
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Quevilly at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Quevilly vs Orleans
Quevilly
- D1-1Amiens26 September 2026
- D0-0away to Versailles19 September 2026
- W2-1Le Puy Foot12 September 2026
- D1-1away to La Roche VF5 September 2026
- W2-1Fleury 9129 August 2026
Orleans
- D1-1away to Bastia1 October 2026
- D0-0Cannes26 September 2026
- L0-2away to Amiens19 September 2026
- L0-4Versailles12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Le Puy Foot5 September 2026
What these results say
- Quevilly went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Quevilly scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Quevilly conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Orleans did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Orleans conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Orleans had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Quevilly | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Orleans | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Quevilly vs Orleans
- 24 April 2026Orleans 0–3 QuevillyLigue 3
- 5 December 2025Quevilly 0–1 OrleansLigue 3
- 28 March 2025Orleans 0–0 QuevillyLigue 3
- 2 November 2024Quevilly 1–1 OrleansLigue 3
- 15 March 2021Orleans 3–4 QuevillyLigue 3
- 9 October 2020Quevilly 3–1 OrleansLigue 3
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Quevilly carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.12 for Orleans. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Quevilly and 1.10 for Orleans. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Quevilly rate 0.46 in attack and 1.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Orleans rate 0.46 and 1.99.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Quevilly a 0.4% chance of the title and Orleans 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Quevilly the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Quevilly against 1.10 for Orleans. Quevilly's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.99 for Orleans.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Quevilly at home · Orleans away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Quevilly 8, Orleans 9.
Orleans score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Quevilly have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Quevilly
- at Bastia31 Oct · Ligue 3win 23%
- at Villefranche7 Nov · Ligue 3win 38%
- vs Valenciennes21 Nov · Ligue 3win 44%
- at Thionville Lusitanos5 Dec · Ligue 3win 29%
Orleans
- vs Villefranche31 Oct · Ligue 3win 51%
- at Valenciennes5 Nov · Ligue 3win 32%
- vs Thionville Lusitanos21 Nov · Ligue 3win 41%
- at Aubagne5 Dec · Ligue 3win 34%
- vs Caen10 Dec · Ligue 3win 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.