Bourg-en-bresse 01
vs
Fleury 91
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Bourg-en-bresse 01 0–1 Fleury 91
The model makes it 27% Bourg-en-bresse 01, 28% draw, 45% Fleury 91 — fair odds of 3.70, 3.57 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Bourg-en-bresse 01 1.06, Fleury 91 1.71.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Bourg-en-bresse 01 are 17th on 5 points from 8 games; Fleury 91 are 14th on 9 points from 8 games — Ligue 3.
- Bourg-en-bresse 01 have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Concarneau.
- Fleury 91 have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Aubagne.
- Last 4 meetings: Fleury 91 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 March 2026, ended Fleury 91 3–0 Bourg-en-bresse 01.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Fleury 91
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fleury 91 at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Fleury 91
Bourg-en-bresse 01
- D1-1Concarneau26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gobelins19 September 2026
- L0-1Bastia12 September 2026
- L0-2Caen5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Aubagne29 August 2026
Fleury 91
- L1-2Aubagne26 September 2026
- D1-1Thionville Lusitanos19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Valenciennes12 September 2026
- W6-1Villefranche5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Quevilly29 August 2026
What these results say
- Bourg-en-bresse 01 did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Bourg-en-bresse 01 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Bourg-en-bresse 01 had two goals or fewer.
- Fleury 91 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fleury 91 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Fleury 91.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 5 |
| 14 | Fleury 91 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Fleury 91
- 27 March 2026Fleury 91 3–0 Bourg-en-bresse 01Ligue 3
- 21 October 2025Bourg-en-bresse 01 2–2 Fleury 91Ligue 3
- 3 February 2024Bourg-en-bresse 01 0–4 Fleury 91National 2 - Group D
- 9 September 2023Fleury 91 0–1 Bourg-en-bresse 01National 2 - Group D
The two sides
Bourg-en-bresse 01 carry a model rating of 5.87 against 6.26 for Fleury 91. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.06 goals for Bourg-en-bresse 01 and 1.71 for Fleury 91. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bourg-en-bresse 01 rate 0.33 in attack and 2.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fleury 91 rate 0.60 and 1.97.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bourg-en-bresse 01 a 0% chance of the title and Fleury 91 2.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fleury 91 the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Bourg-en-bresse 01 against 1.71 for Fleury 91. Bourg-en-bresse 01's attack/defence rating is 0.33/2.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.97 for Fleury 91.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bourg-en-bresse 01 at home · Fleury 91 away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Bourg-en-bresse 01 8, Fleury 91 8.
Fleury 91 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Bourg-en-bresse 01 have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bourg-en-bresse 01
- at La Roche VF31 Oct · Ligue 3win 16%
- vs Le Puy Foot7 Nov · Ligue 3win 29%
- at Versailles21 Nov · Ligue 3win 18%
- vs Amiens5 Dec · Ligue 3win 27%
Fleury 91
- vs Gobelins31 Oct · Ligue 3win 51%
- at Concarneau7 Nov · Ligue 3win 34%
- vs Rouen21 Nov · Ligue 3win 39%
- vs Bastia5 Dec · Ligue 3win 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.