Concarneau
vs
Bastia
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Concarneau 0–1 Bastia
The model makes it 33% Concarneau, 31% draw, 36% Bastia — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Concarneau 1.12, Bastia 1.22.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Concarneau and Bastia are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Concarneau are 4th on 13 points from 8 games; Bastia are 10th on 11 points from 9 games — Ligue 3.
- Concarneau are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Bourg-en-bresse 01.
- Bastia are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Orleans.
- Last 5 meetings: Bastia 1 win to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 23 April 2024, ended Bastia 2–0 Concarneau.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Concarneau vs Bastia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bastia at 36% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Concarneau vs Bastia
Concarneau
- D1-1away to Bourg-en-bresse 0126 September 2026
- W2-0Caen19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Aubagne12 September 2026
- D2-2Thionville Lusitanos5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Valenciennes29 August 2026
Bastia
- D1-1Orleans1 October 2026
- L0-1away to Gobelins26 September 2026
- D1-1Cannes17 September 2026
- W1-0away to Bourg-en-bresse 0112 September 2026
- L0-3Amiens5 September 2026
What these results say
- Concarneau went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Concarneau scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bastia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bastia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bastia had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Concarneau | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 10 | Bastia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Concarneau vs Bastia
- 23 April 2024Bastia 2–0 ConcarneauLigue 2
- 5 August 2023Concarneau 0–0 BastiaLigue 2
- 5 March 2021Bastia 1–1 ConcarneauLigue 3
- 2 October 2020Concarneau 1–1 BastiaLigue 3
- 5 January 2019SC Bastia 4–4 ConcarneauCoupe de France
The two sides
Concarneau carry a model rating of 6.14 against 6.33 for Bastia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.12 goals for Concarneau and 1.22 for Bastia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Concarneau rate 0.44 in attack and 1.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bastia rate 0.55 and 1.57.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Concarneau, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Concarneau a 0.8% chance of the title and Bastia 5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bastia the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Concarneau against 1.22 for Bastia. Concarneau's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.57 for Bastia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Concarneau at home · Bastia away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Concarneau 8, Bastia 9.
Concarneau score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Bastia have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Concarneau
- at Rouen31 Oct · Ligue 3win 23%
- vs Fleury 917 Nov · Ligue 3win 37%
- at La Roche VF21 Nov · Ligue 3win 24%
- vs Le Puy Foot5 Dec · Ligue 3win 39%
Bastia
- vs Quevilly31 Oct · Ligue 3win 49%
- at Rouen7 Nov · Ligue 3win 29%
- vs Villefranche21 Nov · Ligue 3win 60%
- at Fleury 915 Dec · Ligue 3win 32%
- vs Valenciennes12 Dec · Ligue 3win 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.