Gobelins
vs
Rouen
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Gobelins 0–1 Rouen
The model makes it 27% Gobelins, 31% draw, 42% Rouen — fair odds of 3.70, 3.23 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).
Expected goals: Gobelins 0.87, Rouen 1.33.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Gobelins are 9th on 12 points from 8 games; Rouen are 2nd on 17 points from 8 games — Ligue 3.
- Gobelins have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Bastia.
- Rouen have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Caen.
- Last 6 meetings: Rouen 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 20 March 2026, ended Gobelins 0–0 Rouen.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Gobelins vs Rouen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rouen at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gobelins vs Rouen
Gobelins
- W1-0Bastia26 September 2026
- D1-1Bourg-en-bresse 0119 September 2026
- L0-2away to Caen12 September 2026
- D0-0Aubagne5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Thionville Lusitanos29 August 2026
Rouen
- L2-3away to Caen24 September 2026
- W1-0Aubagne19 September 2026
- W4-0away to Thionville Lusitanos12 September 2026
- D1-1Valenciennes3 September 2026
- W2-0away to Villefranche29 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Gobelins had two goals or fewer.
- Gobelins failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rouen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Gobelins | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 12 |
| 2 | Rouen | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gobelins vs Rouen
- 20 March 2026Gobelins 0–0 RouenLigue 3
- 17 October 2025Rouen 3–0 GobelinsLigue 3
- 9 May 2025Rouen 2–2 GobelinsLigue 3
- 17 January 2025Gobelins 1–0 RouenLigue 3
- 11 January 2020Gobelins 1–2 RouenNational 2 - Group B
- 17 August 2019Rouen 3–2 GobelinsNational 2 - Group B
The two sides
Gobelins carry a model rating of 6 against 6.33 for Rouen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.87 goals for Gobelins and 1.33 for Rouen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gobelins rate 0.33 in attack and 1.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rouen rate 0.58 and 1.63.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gobelins a 0% chance of the title and Rouen 25.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rouen the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Gobelins against 1.33 for Rouen. Gobelins's attack/defence rating is 0.33/1.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.63 for Rouen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Gobelins at home · Rouen away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Gobelins 8, Rouen 8.
Rouen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Gobelins have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Gobelins
- at Fleury 9131 Oct · Ligue 3win 21%
- vs La Roche VF7 Nov · Ligue 3win 28%
- at Le Puy Foot21 Nov · Ligue 3win 23%
- vs Versailles5 Dec · Ligue 3win 31%
Rouen
- vs Concarneau31 Oct · Ligue 3win 48%
- vs Bastia7 Nov · Ligue 3win 41%
- at Fleury 9121 Nov · Ligue 3win 33%
- vs La Roche VF5 Dec · Ligue 3win 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.