19 September 2026, 17:00 UTC

Trabzonspor vs Galatasaray Süper Lig prediction & result

Papara Park, Trabzon
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Trabzonspor 4-0 Galatasaray.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Trabzonspor, 28% draw, 39% Galatasaray — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Galatasaray at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Trabzonspor99%Draw1%Galatasaray0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Salahassist: M. Eskihellac
4'
⚽N. Savioloassist: M. Salah
39'
⚽M. Salahassist: Franculino
44'
46'
🔁D. Gulout: B. Yilmaz
E. Muci
48'
🔁Franculinoout: P. Onuachu
59'
🔁E. Muciout: O. Tufan
59'
68'
🔁I. Jakobsout: E. Elmali
68'
🔁Gabriel Saraout: A. Batrakov
68'
🔁L. Torreiraout: L. Ugochukwu
S. Savic
71'
72'
O. Buruk
🔁N. Savioloout: S. Lopes Cabral
73'
73'
🔁R. Sallaiout: K. Karatas
⚽M. Salahassist: O. Tufan
80'
M. Salah
82'
A. Onana
82'
87'
L. Ugochukwu
🔁M. Salahout: A. Simsir
89'
🔁S. Savicout: C. Ozkacar
89'
90+3'
L. Sane

Match stats — Trabzonspor vs Galatasaray

46%Possession54%
7Shots13
4On target3
1Corners5
2.37xG0.86

Goals against chances

Trabzonspor4 from 2.37 xGmore than the chances were worth
Galatasaray0 from 0.86 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Trabzonspor 4-2-3-1
  • 24André OnanaG
  • 20Wagner PinaD
  • 27Chibuike NwaiwuD
  • 15Stefan SavićD
  • 19Mustafa EskihellaçD
  • 57Melih KabasakalM
  • 6FabinhoM
  • 10Mohamed SalahM
  • 7Ernest MuçiM
  • 70Noah SavioloM
  • 9Franculino DjúF
Substitutes
  • 11Ozan TufanM
  • 30Paul OnuachuF
  • 55Sidny Lopes CabralD
  • 1Ahmet Doğan YıldırımG
  • 96Erol Can ÇolakG
  • 4Samet AkaydınD
  • 39Cenk ÖzkaçarD
  • 58Aral ŞimşirM
  • 77Metehan MimaroğluF
Coach: Huseyin Cimsir
Galatasaray 4-2-3-1
  • 1Uğurcan ÇakırG
  • 7Roland SallaiD
  • 6Davinson SánchezD
  • 42Abdülkerim BardakcıD
  • 4Ismail JakobsD
  • 34Lucas TorreiraM
  • 8Gabriel SaraM
  • 10Leroy SanéM
  • 11Yunus AkgünM
  • 27Rafael LeãoM
  • 21Deniz GülF
Substitutes
  • 53Barış Alper YılmazF
  • 17Eren ElmalıD
  • 83Aleksey BatrakovM
  • 18Lesley UgochukwuM
  • 88Kazımcan KarataşD
  • 24Jankat YılmazG
  • 91Arda ÜnyayD
  • 3El Chadaille BitshiabuD
  • 74Renato NhagaM
Coach: Okan Buruk

Form going into Trabzonspor vs Galatasaray

Trabzonspor

Süper Lig

  • L0-1away to Konyaspor12 September 2026

Galatasaray

Süper Lig

  • W1-0Kocaelispor13 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Trabzonspor9612228+1419
1Galatasaray97111912+722

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Trabzonspor vs Galatasaray

  • 4 April 2026Trabzonspor 2–1 GalatasaraySüper Lig
  • 5 January 2026Galatasaray 4–1 TrabzonsporSuper Cup
  • 1 November 2025Galatasaray 0–0 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
  • 14 May 2025Trabzonspor 0–3 GalatasarayTürkiye Kupası
  • 10 May 2025Trabzonspor 0–2 GalatasaraySüper Lig

The full Trabzonspor vs Galatasaray record →

Leading scorers: Trabzonspor and Galatasaray

Trabzonspor

GoalsAssists

  • Mohamed Salah83
  • Franculino Djú42

Galatasaray

GoalsAssists

  • V. Osimhen83

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Trabzonspor beat Galatasaray 4–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Galatasaray at 39% and given a win for Trabzonspor 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: M. Salah 4' for Trabzonspor, N. Saviolo 39' for Trabzonspor, M. Salah 44' for Trabzonspor, M. Salah 80' for Trabzonspor. Sent off: O. Buruk (Galatasaray) 72', L. Ugochukwu (Galatasaray) 87'. On expected goals it finished 2.37–0.86.

How the call on Trabzonspor v Galatasaray has moved

First published on 5 Sep at 29% / 28% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 33% / 28% / 39%: the biggest move is Trabzonspor's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Trabzonspor win33%▲ +4
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Galatasaray win39%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.