New England Revolution
vs
Chicago Fire
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: New England Revolution 2–1 Chicago Fire
The model makes it 41% New England Revolution, 27% draw, 32% Chicago Fire — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: New England Revolution 1.81, Chicago Fire 1.43.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- New England Revolution are 2nd on 46 points from 27 games; Chicago Fire are 5th on 42 points from 26 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- New England Revolution have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Real Salt Lake.
- Chicago Fire have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win away to Charlotte.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 September 2026, ended Chicago Fire 1–2 New England Revolution.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire
Has the model earned this number?
It puts New England Revolution at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire
New England Revolution
- L0-3away to Real Salt Lake27 September 2026
- W4-2Orlando City SC19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Chicago Fire13 September 2026
- W2-1away to New York City FC10 September 2026
- L1-2away to Los Angeles Galaxy6 September 2026
Chicago Fire
- W1-0away to Charlotte26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Nashville SC20 September 2026
- L1-2New England Revolution13 September 2026
- D1-1Inter Miami10 September 2026
- D4-4away to Toronto FC5 September 2026
What these results say
- New England Revolution conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for New England Revolution had three goals or more.
- New England Revolution scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | New England Revolution | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 45 | 36 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Chicago Fire | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 46 | 38 | +8 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire
- 13 September 2026Chicago Fire 1–2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 18 October 2025New England Revolution 2–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 7 September 2025Chicago Fire 3–2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 20 May 2025New England Revolution 1–3 Chicago FireUS Open Cup
- 5 May 2024Chicago Fire 0–1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 23 March 2024New England Revolution 1–1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: New England Revolution and Chicago Fire
New England Revolution
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 45 league goals as a side.
Chicago Fire
- H. Cuypers13 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
New England Revolution carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.55 for Chicago Fire. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.81 goals for New England Revolution and 1.43 for Chicago Fire. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
New England Revolution rate 0.72 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chicago Fire rate 0.76 and 1.38.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives New England Revolution the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for New England Revolution against 1.43 for Chicago Fire. New England Revolution's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.38 for Chicago Fire.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
New England Revolution at home · Chicago Fire away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: New England Revolution 27, Chicago Fire 26.
New England Revolution score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Chicago Fire have let in 11 there.
Chicago Fire score most often in the 61–75 minute window (11 goals); New England Revolution have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
New England Revolution
- at Philadelphia Union24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 27%
- vs New York Red Bulls28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 49%
- vs Inter Miami2 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 36%
Chicago Fire
- at Atlanta United FC24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 38%
- vs Orlando City SC29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.