Orlando City SC
vs
DC United
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Orlando City SC 2–1 DC United
The model makes it 45% Orlando City SC, 26% draw, 29% DC United — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Orlando City SC 2.20, DC United 1.53.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Orlando City SC are 7th on 34 points from 27 games; DC United are 11th on 30 points from 26 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- Orlando City SC have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to Philadelphia Union.
- DC United are without a win in 3, most recently a 3-3 draw away to Vancouver Whitecaps.
- Last 6 meetings: Orlando City SC 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended DC United 3–2 Orlando City SC.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Orlando City SC vs DC United
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Orlando City SC at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Orlando City SC vs DC United
Orlando City SC
- L2-4away to Philadelphia Union26 September 2026
- L2-4away to New England Revolution19 September 2026
- W3-0Toronto FC12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Atlanta United FC9 September 2026
- W1-0San Diego5 September 2026
DC United
- D3-3away to Vancouver Whitecaps27 September 2026
- L1-2Charlotte19 September 2026
- D0-0Atlanta United FC12 September 2026
- W2-1Columbus Crew9 September 2026
- D0-0Los Angeles FC29 August 2026
What these results say
- Orlando City SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Orlando City SC had three goals or more.
- DC United failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 27 | 10 | 4 | 13 | 48 | 64 | -16 | 34 |
| 11 | DC United | 26 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 34 | 42 | -8 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Orlando City SC vs DC United
- 25 April 2026DC United 3–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 13 September 2025DC United 1–1 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 22 March 2025Orlando City SC 4–1 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 6 July 2024Orlando City SC 5–0 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 13 April 2024DC United 2–3 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 22 April 2023Orlando City SC 1–3 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Orlando City SC and DC United
Orlando City SC
- M. Ojeda13 goals1 assist
DC United
- T. Baribo14 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Orlando City SC carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.4 for DC United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.20 goals for Orlando City SC and 1.53 for DC United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Orlando City SC rate 0.81 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; DC United rate 0.60 and 1.49.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Orlando City SC the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Orlando City SC against 1.53 for DC United. Orlando City SC's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.49 for DC United.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Orlando City SC at home · DC United away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Orlando City SC 27, DC United 26.
Orlando City SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); DC United have let in 11 there.
DC United score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Orlando City SC have let in 14 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Orlando City SC
- vs New York City FC24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 38%
- at Chicago Fire29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 28%
- at Charlotte31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 27%
DC United
- at FC Cincinnati21 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 30%
- vs FC Cincinnati24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 40%
- at Toronto FC28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.