Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Paranaense 2-0 Internacional.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Atletico Paranaense, 24% draw, 24% Internacional — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Paranaense at 52% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23SantosG
- 22Carlos TeránD
- 33Juan Felipe AguirreD
- 37Lucas EsquivelD
- 12GilbertoM
- 16JádsonM
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 26ClaudinhoM
- 21LeozinhoF
- 7Steven MendozaF
- 9Kevin ViverosF
- 8João CruzM
- 29Gastón BenavídezD
- 11IsaacF
- 27Juan PortillaM
- 42Matheus SoaresG
- 6Leonardo DerikD
- 2Gilberto JuniorD
- 3LéoD
- 53DuduM
- 12AnthoniG
- 4Félix TorresD
- 3Guillermo MaripánD
- 18Jose JuninhoD
- 28VitinhoM
- 15Bruno GomesM
- 5Rodrigo VillagraM
- 6Matheus BahiaM
- 7Johan CarboneroF
- 26Alexandro BernabeiF
- 9AlerrandroF
- 35Braian AguirreD
- 8Bruno HenriqueM
- 10Alan PatrickM
- 49João Pedro Bezerra de Oliveira LoF
- 23Matheus CunhaG
- 25Gabriel MercadoD
- 53Luiz FelipeD
- 46Pedro KauãD
- 31AllexM
Form going into Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional
Atletico Paranaense
- W2-1away to Sao Paulo23 July 2026
Internacional
- L1-2Cruzeiro23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41 | 31 | +10 | 46 |
| 18 | Internacional | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional
- 28 January 2026Internacional 0–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 11 August 2024Internacional 2–2 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 21 April 2024Atletico Paranaense 1–0 InternacionalSerie A
- 21 September 2023Atletico Paranaense 2–1 InternacionalSerie A
- 10 May 2023Internacional 0–2 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 6 November 2022Internacional 2–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Atletico Paranaense and Internacional
Atletico Paranaense
- K. Viveros18 goals3 assists
Internacional
- J. Carbonero7 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.