25 July 2026, 23:30 UTC

DC United vs Toronto FC Major League Soccer prediction & result

Audi Field, Washington
Full time2 – 1

Final score: DC United 2-1 Toronto FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 67% DC United, 19% draw, 14% Toronto FC — fair odds of 1.49, 5.26 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts DC United at 67% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽K. Rowlesassist: K. Kurokawa
41'
46'
🔁Z. Monlouisout: A. Coello
L. Munteanu
53'
54'
🔁D. Etienneout: D. Mihailovic
54'
🔁E. Aristizabalout: D. Kerr
🔁Peglowout: J. Stroud
65'
🔁J. Hopkinsout: M. Peltola
65'
76'
⚽T. Corbeanu
🔁B. Servaniaout: H. Kijima
80'
🔁K. Rowlesout: S. Nealis
80'
🔁L. Munteanuout: N. Ordaz
85'
88'
J. Osorio
90+2'
🔁T. Corbeanuout: M. Henry
⚽T. Baribo (pen)
90+10'

Match stats — DC United vs Toronto FC

45%Possession55%
17Shots13
8On target7
8Corners4
2.43xG1.42

Goals against chances

DC United2 from 2.43 xGabout what the chances were worth
Toronto FC1 from 1.42 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

DC United 4-4-2
  • 1Sean JohnsonG
  • 5Silvan HeftiD
  • 3Lucas BartlettD
  • 15Kye RowlesD
  • 6Keisuke KurokawaD
  • 25Jackson HopkinsM
  • 23Brandon ServaniaM
  • 21Andre DozzellM
  • 7João PeglowM
  • 11Louis MunteanuF
  • 9Tai BariboF
Substitutes
  • 26Alex BonoG
  • 13Sean NealisD
  • 27Nikola MarkovicD
  • 4Matti PeltolaD
  • 8Jared StroudM
  • 77Hosei KijimaM
  • 22Nathan OrdazF
  • 32Oscar AvilezF
Coach: Rene Weiler
Toronto FC 3-4-2-1
  • 1Luka GavranG
  • 12Zane MonlouisD
  • 25Walker ZimmermanD
  • 38Jackson GilmanD
  • 19Kobe FranklinM
  • 22Richie LaryeaM
  • 21Jonathan OsorioM
  • 20Dániel SallóiM
  • 7Theo CorbeanuF
  • 11Derrick EtienneF
  • 17Emilio AristizábalF
Substitutes
  • 23William YarbroughG
  • 77Adisa De RosarioG
  • 44Raheem EdwardsD
  • 14Alonso CoelloM
  • 10Đorđe MihailovićM
  • 78Malik HenryM
  • 99Jules-Anthony VilsaintF
  • 29Deandre KerrF
Coach: Robin Fraser

Form going into DC United vs Toronto FC

DC United

  • D1-1away to Houston Dynamo23 July 2026

Toronto FC

  • D0-0away to New England Revolution22 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: DC United vs Toronto FC

  • 10 May 2025Toronto FC 2–0 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
  • 23 February 2025DC United 2–2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 31 August 2024Toronto FC 1–3 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
  • 1 June 2024DC United 2–2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 27 May 2023Toronto FC 2–1 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
  • 26 February 2023DC United 3–2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: DC United and Toronto FC

DC United

  • T. Baribo14 goals

Toronto FC

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.