Vasco da Gama vs Mirassol Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Vasco da Gama 1-1 Mirassol.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Vasco da Gama, 28% draw, 41% Mirassol — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mirassol at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vasco da Gama vs Mirassol
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Léo JardimG
- 2Puma RodríguezD
- 46Carlos CuestaD
- 30Robert RenanD
- 66CuiabanoD
- 88Cauan BarrosM
- 3Tchê TchêM
- 28AdsonM
- 83Ramon RiqueM
- 11Andrés GómezM
- 77Claudio SpinelliF
- 17Nuno MoreiraM
- 7DavidF
- 8JairM
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 10Johan RojasF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 29PaulinhoD
- 22WalterG
- 32Igor FormigaD
- 34João VictorD
- 44Gabriel KnesowitschD
- 6ReinaldoD
- 8DenilsonM
- 21José AldoM
- 5JapaM
- 19Gustavo SilvaF
- 30Bruno SantosF
- 95Edson CariocaF
- 2Lucas OliveiraD
- 96Carlos EduardoF
- 33EduardoM
- 17FernandinhoF
- 10ChicoM
- 90ThomazellaG
- 3Willian MachadoD
- 12Victor LuisD
- 18EliasD
Form going into Vasco da Gama vs Mirassol
Vasco da Gama
No earlier matches on record this season.
Mirassol
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Gremio17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Vasco da Gama | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 38 |
| 16 | Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37 | 45 | -8 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vasco da Gama vs Mirassol
- 29 January 2026Mirassol 2–1 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 2 December 2025Vasco da Gama 0–2 MirassolSerie A
- 2 August 2025Mirassol 3–2 Vasco da GamaSerie A
The result against the call
Vasco da Gama and Mirassol drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Mirassol at 41% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Igor Formiga 30' for Mirassol, A. Gomez 80' for Vasco da Gama. On expected goals it finished 1.83–0.84.