Vasco da Gama vs Mirassol Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Vasco da Gama 1-1 Mirassol.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Vasco da Gama, 28% draw, 41% Mirassol — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mirassol at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vasco da Gama vs Mirassol
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Léo JardimG
- 2Puma RodríguezD
- 46Carlos CuestaD
- 30Robert RenanD
- 66CuiabanoD
- 88Cauan BarrosM
- 3Tchê TchêM
- 28AdsonM
- 83Ramon RiqueM
- 11Andrés GómezM
- 77Claudio SpinelliF
- 17Nuno MoreiraM
- 7DavidF
- 8JairM
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 10Johan RojasF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 29PaulinhoD
- 22WalterG
- 32Igor FormigaD
- 34João VictorD
- 44Gabriel KnesowitschD
- 6ReinaldoD
- 8DenilsonM
- 21José AldoM
- 5JapaM
- 19Gustavo SilvaF
- 30Bruno SantosF
- 95Edson CariocaF
- 2Lucas OliveiraD
- 96Carlos EduardoF
- 33EduardoM
- 17FernandinhoF
- 10ChicoM
- 90ThomazellaG
- 3Willian MachadoD
- 12Victor LuisD
- 18EliasD
Form going into Vasco da Gama vs Mirassol
Vasco da Gama
No earlier matches on record this season.
Mirassol
- W2-1Gremio17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Vasco da Gama | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 28 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vasco da Gama vs Mirassol
- 29 January 2026Mirassol 2–1 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 2 December 2025Vasco da Gama 0–2 MirassolSerie A
- 2 August 2025Mirassol 3–2 Vasco da GamaSerie A