New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: New York Red Bulls 0-2 Charlotte.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% New York Red Bulls, 26% draw, 34% Charlotte — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts New York Red Bulls at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 34Ethan HorvathG
- 12Dylan NealisD
- 2Justin CheD
- 14Julián BazánD
- 56Matthew Dos SantosD
- 48Ronald DonkorM
- 15Adri MehmetiM
- 10Emil ForsbergM
- 7Cade CowellF
- 16Julian HallF
- 11Jorge RuvalcabaF
- 3Jahkeele Marshall-RuttyD
- 37Mohammed SofoF
- 91Mijahir JimenezF
- 5Omar ValenciaD
- 70Andy RojasF
- 77John McCarthyG
- 26Tim ParkerD
- 4Gustav BerggrenM
- 80Nathan WorthM
- 1Kristijan KahlinaG
- 14Nathan ByrneD
- 44Morrison AgyemangD
- 22Henry KesslerD
- 15Harry ToffoloD
- 8Ashley WestwoodM
- 17Luca De La TorreM
- 18Kerwin Calderón VargasM
- 16Pep BielM
- 11Liel AbadaM
- 9Idan ToklomatiF
- 35Will ClearyD
- 28Djibril DianiM
- 25Tyger SmallsF
- 13Brandt BronicoM
- 7Archie GoodwinF
- 21Tyler MillerG
- 4Andrew PrivettD
- 3Tim ReamD
- 37Rodolfo AlokoF
Form going into New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte
New York Red Bulls
- L1-3away to Philadelphia Union22 July 2026
Charlotte
- D2-2Atlanta United FC23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte
- 21 March 2026Charlotte 6–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 24 August 2025Charlotte 1–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 28 May 2025New York Red Bulls 4–2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 24 August 2024Charlotte 1–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 29 May 2024New York Red Bulls 3–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 25 October 2023New York Red Bulls 5–2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: New York Red Bulls and Charlotte
New York Red Bulls
No leading scorers listed yet.
Charlotte
- Pep Biel11 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.