New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: New York Red Bulls 0-2 Charlotte.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% New York Red Bulls, 26% draw, 34% Charlotte — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts New York Red Bulls at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 34Ethan HorvathG
- 12Dylan NealisD
- 2Justin CheD
- 14Julián BazánD
- 56Matthew Dos SantosD
- 48Ronald DonkorM
- 15Adri MehmetiM
- 10Emil ForsbergM
- 7Cade CowellF
- 16Julian HallF
- 11Jorge RuvalcabaF
- 3Jahkeele Marshall-RuttyD
- 37Mohammed SofoF
- 91Mijahir JimenezF
- 5Omar ValenciaD
- 70Andy RojasF
- 77John McCarthyG
- 26Tim ParkerD
- 4Gustav BerggrenM
- 80Nathan WorthM
- 1Kristijan KahlinaG
- 14Nathan ByrneD
- 44Morrison AgyemangD
- 22Henry KesslerD
- 15Harry ToffoloD
- 8Ashley WestwoodM
- 17Luca De La TorreM
- 18Kerwin Calderón VargasM
- 16Pep BielM
- 11Liel AbadaM
- 9Idan ToklomatiF
- 35Will ClearyD
- 28Djibril DianiM
- 25Tyger SmallsF
- 13Brandt BronicoM
- 7Archie GoodwinF
- 21Tyler MillerG
- 4Andrew PrivettD
- 3Tim ReamD
- 37Rodolfo AlokoF
Form going into New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte
New York Red Bulls
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Philadelphia Union22 July 2026
Charlotte
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Atlanta United FC23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 32 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 43 | 59 | -16 | 39 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 59 | 48 | +11 | 50 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte
- 21 March 2026Charlotte 6–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 24 August 2025Charlotte 1–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 28 May 2025New York Red Bulls 4–2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 24 August 2024Charlotte 1–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 29 May 2024New York Red Bulls 3–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 25 October 2023New York Red Bulls 5–2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: New York Red Bulls and Charlotte
New York Red Bulls
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.
Charlotte
GoalsAssists
- I. Toklomati Giorno155
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Charlotte won 2–0 at New York Red Bulls. The model had leaned towards a win for New York Red Bulls at 40% and given a win for Charlotte 34%. The goals: P. Biel 7' for Charlotte, A. Westwood 12' for Charlotte. Sent off: A. Mehmeti (New York Red Bulls) 90+3'. On expected goals it finished 2.38–0.27.