25 July 2026, 12:45 UTC

Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Chorten Arena, Bialystok
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Jagiellonia 1-0 Korona Kielce.

Before kick-off the model made it 66% Jagiellonia, 23% draw, 11% Korona Kielce — fair odds of 1.52, 4.35 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Jagiellonia at 66% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Y. Syllaout: R. Conceicao
61'
🔁K. Jozwiakout: N. Prelec
61'
64'
P. Hellebrand
67'
🔁M. Stepinskiout: D. Bak
67'
🔁S. Gustafsonout: M. Remacle
🔁D. Drachalout: S. Lozano
74'
84'
🔁T. Svetlinout: K. Jakubczyk
84'
🔁D. Blanikout: K. Ciszek
🔁J. Imazout: D. Rallis
87'
🔁K. Szmytout: J. Agbonifo
87'
⚽N. Prelecassist: S. Lozano
89'
90'
🔁P. Hellebrandout: M. Fassbender

Match stats — Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce

62%Possession38%
11Shots16
4On target1
3Corners6
1.08xG0.71

Goals against chances

Jagiellonia1 from 1.08 xGabout what the chances were worth
Korona Kielce0 from 0.71 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Jagiellonia 4-1-4-1
  • 50Sławomir AbramowiczG
  • 15Norbert WojtuszekD
  • 5Bernardo VitalD
  • 4Yuki KobayashiD
  • 23Guilherme MontóiaD
  • 6Taras RomanczukM
  • 72Kamil JóźwiakM
  • 11Jesús ImazM
  • 8Dawid DrachalM
  • 7Kajetan SzmytM
  • 17Youssuf SyllaF
Substitutes
  • 27Rodrigo ConceiçãoD
  • 99Nik PrelecF
  • 21Sergio LozanoM
  • 9Dimitris RallisF
  • 10Jeremy AgbonifoF
  • 1Michał PerchelG
  • 44Apostolos KonstantopoulosD
  • 61Bartlomiej KrasiewiczD
  • 85Eryk KozłowskiM
Coach: Adrian Siemieniec
Korona Kielce 4-2-3-1
  • 1Xavier DziekońskiG
  • 37Hubert ZwoznyD
  • 44Constantinos SotiriouD
  • 2Ariel MosórD
  • 6Marcel PięczekD
  • 18Patrik HellebrandM
  • 88Tamar SvetlinM
  • 71Wiktor DługoszM
  • 86Simon GustafsonM
  • 7Dawid BłanikM
  • 14Mariusz StępińskiF
Substitutes
  • 8Martin RemacleM
  • 99Daniel BąkF
  • 21Konrad CiszekD
  • 35Kamil JakubczykM
  • 22Morgan FassbenderF
  • 87Rafał MamlaG
  • 67Norbert BarczakD
  • 24Bartłomiej SmolarczykD
  • 20Kacper MinuczycM
Coach: Jacek Zielinski

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Jagiellonia74031110+112
7Korona Kielce733196+312

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce

  • 25 July 2026Jagiellonia 1–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
  • 10 April 2026Korona Kielce 1–1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
  • 5 October 2025Jagiellonia 3–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
  • 27 April 2025Korona Kielce 3–1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
  • 27 October 2024Jagiellonia 3–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
  • 11 May 2024Jagiellonia 3–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Jagiellonia and Korona Kielce

Jagiellonia

  • N. Prelec3 goals1 assists

Korona Kielce

  • M. Stępiński4 goals
  • M. Faßbender3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.