Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Jagiellonia 1-0 Korona Kielce.
Before kick-off the model made it 66% Jagiellonia, 23% draw, 11% Korona Kielce — fair odds of 1.52, 4.35 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Jagiellonia at 66% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 50Sławomir AbramowiczG
- 15Norbert WojtuszekD
- 5Bernardo VitalD
- 4Yuki KobayashiD
- 23Guilherme MontóiaD
- 6Taras RomanczukM
- 72Kamil JóźwiakM
- 11Jesús ImazM
- 8Dawid DrachalM
- 7Kajetan SzmytM
- 17Youssuf SyllaF
- 27Rodrigo ConceiçãoD
- 99Nik PrelecF
- 21Sergio LozanoM
- 9Dimitris RallisF
- 10Jeremy AgbonifoF
- 1Michał PerchelG
- 44Apostolos KonstantopoulosD
- 61Bartlomiej KrasiewiczD
- 85Eryk KozłowskiM
- 1Xavier DziekońskiG
- 37Hubert ZwoznyD
- 44Constantinos SotiriouD
- 2Ariel MosórD
- 6Marcel PięczekD
- 18Patrik HellebrandM
- 88Tamar SvetlinM
- 71Wiktor DługoszM
- 86Simon GustafsonM
- 7Dawid BłanikM
- 14Mariusz StępińskiF
- 8Martin RemacleM
- 99Daniel BąkF
- 21Konrad CiszekD
- 35Kamil JakubczykM
- 22Morgan FassbenderF
- 87Rafał MamlaG
- 67Norbert BarczakD
- 24Bartłomiej SmolarczykD
- 20Kacper MinuczycM
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 15 |
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce
- 10 April 2026Korona Kielce 1–1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 5 October 2025Jagiellonia 3–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 27 April 2025Korona Kielce 3–1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 27 October 2024Jagiellonia 3–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 11 May 2024Jagiellonia 3–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Jagiellonia and Korona Kielce
Jagiellonia
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Korona Kielce
GoalsAssists
- M. Stępiński60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Jagiellonia beat Korona Kielce 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Jagiellonia at 66%. The goal: N. Prelec 89' for Jagiellonia. On expected goals it finished 1.08–0.71.