Santos vs Chapecoense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Santos 2-2 Chapecoense.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Santos, 19% draw, 23% Chapecoense — fair odds of 1.72, 5.26 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Santos at 58% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Santos vs Chapecoense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 77Gabriel BrazãoG
- 18Igor ViníciusD
- 4Lucas VeríssimoD
- 26João Paulo AnaniasD
- 31Gonzalo EscobarD
- 15Willian ArãoM
- 8Gabriel BontempoM
- 32Benjamín RollheiserM
- 10NeymarM
- 22Álvaro BarrealM
- 9Gabriel BarbosaF
- 17Gustavo CaballeroF
- 28Christian OlivaM
- 25Gabriel MeninoM
- 16ThacianoM
- 11RonyF
- 34João PauloG
- 98Adonis FríasD
- 14Luan PeresD
- 30MiguelitoM
- 30MatheusG
- 20Bruno TubarãoD
- 33Bruno LeonardoD
- 3Eduardo DomaD
- 12FernandoD
- 97ÊnioM
- 19David AntunesM
- 27CamiloM
- 22MaxM
- 94Kevin RamírezM
- 11Yannick BolasieF
- 16Bruno MatiasM
- 10Giovanni AugustoM
- 7MarcinhoF
- 91Bruno PachecoD
- 17Vinicius BalieiroM
- 1Rafael SantosG
- 15Rafael ThyereD
- 21KauanD
- 26EvertonD
Form going into Santos vs Chapecoense
Santos
No earlier matches on record this season.
Chapecoense
- L0-4Flamengo23 July 2026
- L0-2away to Bahia17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Santos | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 35 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 26 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 28 | 52 | -24 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Santos vs Chapecoense
- 28 January 2026Chapecoense 4–2 SantosSerie A
- 16 October 2024Chapecoense 3–2 SantosSerie B
- 2 July 2024Santos 1–0 ChapecoenseSerie B
- 17 November 2021Santos 2–0 ChapecoenseSerie A
- 1 August 2021Chapecoense 0–1 SantosSerie A
- 1 December 2019Santos 2–0 ChapecoenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Santos and Chapecoense
Santos
- Gabriel Barbosa10 goals2 assists
Chapecoense
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.