Santos vs Chapecoense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Santos 2-2 Chapecoense.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Santos, 19% draw, 23% Chapecoense — fair odds of 1.72, 5.26 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Santos at 58% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Santos vs Chapecoense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 77Gabriel BrazãoG
- 18Igor ViníciusD
- 4Lucas VeríssimoD
- 26João Paulo AnaniasD
- 31Gonzalo EscobarD
- 15Willian ArãoM
- 8Gabriel BontempoM
- 32Benjamín RollheiserM
- 10NeymarM
- 22Álvaro BarrealM
- 9Gabriel BarbosaF
- 17Gustavo CaballeroF
- 28Christian OlivaM
- 25Gabriel MeninoM
- 16ThacianoM
- 11RonyF
- 34João PauloG
- 98Adonis FríasD
- 14Luan PeresD
- 30MiguelitoM
- 30MatheusG
- 20Bruno TubarãoD
- 33Bruno LeonardoD
- 3Eduardo DomaD
- 12FernandoD
- 97ÊnioM
- 19David AntunesM
- 27CamiloM
- 22MaxM
- 94Kevin RamírezM
- 11Yannick BolasieF
- 16Bruno MatiasM
- 10Giovanni AugustoM
- 7MarcinhoF
- 91Bruno PachecoD
- 17Vinicius BalieiroM
- 1Rafael SantosG
- 15Rafael ThyereD
- 21KauanD
- 26EvertonD
Form going into Santos vs Chapecoense
Santos
No earlier matches on record this season.
Chapecoense
All competitions we cover
- L0-4Flamengo23 July 2026
- L0-2away to Bahia17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Santos | 33 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 49 | 47 | +2 | 47 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 32 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 32 | 66 | -34 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Santos vs Chapecoense
- 28 January 2026Chapecoense 4–2 SantosSerie A
- 16 October 2024Chapecoense 3–2 SantosSerie B
- 2 July 2024Santos 1–0 ChapecoenseSerie B
- 17 November 2021Santos 2–0 ChapecoenseSerie A
- 1 August 2021Chapecoense 0–1 SantosSerie A
- 1 December 2019Santos 2–0 ChapecoenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Santos and Chapecoense
Santos
GoalsAssists
- Gabriel Barbosa153
- Neymar83
Chapecoense
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Santos and Chapecoense drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Santos at 58% and given a draw 19%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Neymar 36' for Santos, Marcinho 51' for Chapecoense, João Paulo Ananias (own goal) 62' for Chapecoense, Neymar (penalty) 89' for Santos. On expected goals it finished 1.74–0.86.