Portland Timbers vs Austin Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Portland Timbers 1-2 Austin.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Portland Timbers, 23% draw, 23% Austin — fair odds of 1.85, 4.35 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Portland Timbers at 54% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Portland Timbers vs Austin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 41J. PantemisG
- 15E. MillerD
- 20F. SurmanD
- 4K. MillerD
- 27J. ForyD
- 17C. BassettM
- 30J. CaicedoM
- 10D. Da CostaM
- 7A. LassiterF
- 88G. GuerraF
- 99K. VeldeF
- 26H. SulteG
- 6A. BonetigD
- 18Z. McGrawD
- 16S. JuraD
- 23I. SmithD
- 80J. OrtizM
- 73E. IzoitaM
- 22O. FernandezF
- 11AntonyF
- 1B. StuverG
- 3M. DeslerD
- 15J. BellD
- 29Guilherme BiroD
- 30J. RosalesM
- 38E. TorresM
- 14B. SabovicM
- 17J. GallagherM
- 11F. TorresF
- 24J. AlastueyF
- 9B. VazquezF
- 12D. LasG
- 5O. SvatokD
- 4B. Hines-IkeD
- 23Z. KolmanicD
- 35M. DjordjevicD
- 6I. SanchezM
- 32M. BurtonM
- 21C. RamirezF
- 77P. PlachetaM
Form going into Portland Timbers vs Austin
Portland Timbers
- D1-1away to Los Angeles FC23 August 2026
- W3-1San Diego20 August 2026
- L1-2away to Chicago Fire16 August 2026
- W2-1Seattle Sounders2 August 2026
- W2-1Real Salt Lake26 July 2026
Austin
- D1-1Philadelphia Union23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Seattle Sounders20 August 2026
- L1-2FC Dallas17 August 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids2 August 2026
- L0-3away to Houston Dynamo26 July 2026
What these results say
- Portland Timbers scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Portland Timbers.
- Austin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Austin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Portland Timbers vs Austin
- 5 April 2025Austin 0–0 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 2 March 2025Portland Timbers 1–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 3 October 2024Portland Timbers 0–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 30 May 2024Austin 0–2 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 18 September 2023Austin 1–2 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 7 May 2023Portland Timbers 2–2 AustinMajor League Soccer