8 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

UCV Moquegua vs Cienciano Primera División prediction & result

Estadio 25 de Noviembre, Moquegua
Referee: Edwin Ordonez
Full time0 – 2

Final score: UCV Moquegua 0-2 Cienciano.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% UCV Moquegua, 29% draw, 39% Cienciano — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Cienciano at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

UCV Moquegua0%Draw1%Cienciano99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

37'
⚽Neri Bandieraassist: Carlos Garcés
40'
⚽Carlos Garcés
🔁José Luis Grandaout: Y. López
45'
🔁Cristian Mejíaout: Claudio Ramírez
45'
Aldair Perleche
57'
60'
🔁Ray Sandovalout: Matias Succar
61'
Claudio Nuñez
🔁Brayan Anguloout: Jeferson Collazos
62'
66'
🔁Neri Bandieraout: Gonzalo Aguirre
🔁Diego Ramírezout: Marcello Negrón
78'
85'
🔁Carlos Garcésout: Didier La Torre
85'
🔁Cristian Souzaout: Rotceh Aguilar
🔁Juan Diego Lojasout: Edgar Miguel Santillán Vargas
86'
Claudio Ramírez
87'

Match stats — UCV Moquegua vs Cienciano

43%Possession57%
13Shots25
5On target12
6Corners9

Line-ups

UCV Moquegua 3-4-3
  • 1C. GradosG
  • 30J. GrandaD
  • 13J. LojasD
  • 25R. ChipaoD
  • 4A. PerlecheM
  • 6Jimmy Rangell Jiménez CárdenasM
  • 20D. RamírezM
  • 3C. EncisoM
  • 7E. LastreF
  • 11B. AnguloF
  • 8C. MejíaF
Substitutes
  • 9M. NegronF
  • 14Claudio Guillermo Ramírez LlamoccaM
  • 35E. SantillánM
  • 90J. CollazosF
  • 34K. FerreyraM
  • 29R. FigueroaG
  • 24A. LecarosF
  • 88Y. LópezD
  • 22E. MontenegroD
Coach: J. Serna
Cienciano 3-4-2-1
  • 1G. FalcónG
  • 13C. NúñezD
  • 3K. BecerraD
  • 4M. AmondarainD
  • 7C. SouzaM
  • 29A. RoblesM
  • 39H. CaparóM
  • 16M. MartinichM
  • 11N. BandieraM
  • 17R. SandovalM
  • 21C. GarcésF
Substitutes
  • 25R. SalazarD
  • 30Jean RoncalG
  • 18D. La TorreF
  • 99Nadhir ColungaF
  • 14S. CaveroD
  • 88G. BarretoM
  • 8G. AguirreM
  • 26R. AguilarD
  • 19M. SuccarF
Coach: Horacio Melgarejo

Form going into UCV Moquegua vs Cienciano

UCV Moquegua

  • L0-4away to Juan Pablo II College20 September 2026
  • L1-2Sporting Cristal13 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Cusco5 September 2026
  • L1-4Alianza Atletico30 August 2026

Cienciano

  • D1-1Club Deportivo Los Chankas30 September 2026
  • L1-2away to ADT23 September 2026
  • W5-2away to FC Cajamarca4 September 2026
  • L1-2Cusco31 August 2026

What these results say

  • UCV Moquegua did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • UCV Moquegua conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for UCV Moquegua had three goals or more.
  • Cienciano scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Cienciano conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Cienciano.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17UCV Moquegua2867152443-1925
6Cienciano28135104840+844

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: UCV Moquegua vs Cienciano

  • 20 April 2026Cienciano 2–1 UCV MoqueguaPrimera División

Leading scorers: UCV Moquegua and Cienciano

UCV Moquegua

GoalsAssists

  • E. Lastre85

Cienciano

GoalsAssists

  • C. Garcés153
  • A. Hohberg125
  • N. Bandiera81

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.