Boca Juniors vs Lanus Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Boca Juniors 1-0 Lanus.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Boca Juniors, 26% draw, 35% Lanus — fair odds of 2.56, 3.85 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Boca Juniors at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Boca Juniors vs Lanus
Line-ups
- 1A. MonteroG
- 24D. GorositoD
- 2L. Di LolloD
- 42F. HerreraD
- 3L. BlancoD
- 25S. AscacibarM
- 23C. Rey DomenechM
- 18M. DelgadoM
- 19L. FloresF
- 16Miguel MerentielF
- 20A. VelascoF
- 12L. BreyG
- 4J. FigalD
- 46M. SatasD
- 5L. ParedesM
- 8T. BelmonteM
- 21K. ZenonM
- 7Carlos PalaciosF
- 15W. H. Alarcon CepedaM
- 11Angel RomeroF
- 26N. LosadaG
- 33T. GuidaraD
- 24C. IzquierdozD
- 13J. CanaleD
- 6S. MarcichD
- 5F. Pena BiaforeM
- 30A. CardozoM
- 11E. SalvioM
- 8F. N. WatsonM
- 25D. AquinoM
- 19Y. ValoisF
- 1F. PetroliG
- 4G. PerezD
- 35R. De JesusD
- 3N. MorgantiniD
- 27F. SanchezD
- 40T. LopezD
- 16M. SepulvedaM
- 17A. MedinaM
- 20A. WlkF
Form going into Boca Juniors vs Lanus
Boca Juniors
- D1-1away to Racing Club24 August 2026
- D1-1away to Platense16 August 2026
- D1-1Velez Sarsfield8 August 2026
- W1-0Estudiantes La Plata5 August 2026
- D2-2away to Newell's Old Boys2 August 2026
Lanus
- D1-1Argentinos Juniors25 August 2026
What these results say
- Boca Juniors went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Boca Juniors scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Boca Juniors failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 20 |
| 7 | Lanus | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Boca Juniors vs Lanus
- 5 March 2026Lanus 0–3 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 11 May 2025Boca Juniors 0–0 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
- 3 November 2024Lanus 1–0 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 19 February 2024Lanus 2–1 Boca JuniorsCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 23 September 2023Boca Juniors 1–1 LanusCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 10 June 2023Boca Juniors 1–1 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Boca Juniors and Lanus
Boca Juniors
- M. Merentiel7 goals2 assists
Lanus
- D. Aquino6 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.