Boca Juniors
vs
Lanus
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 57% Boca Juniors, 23% draw, 20% Lanus — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Boca Juniors 1.87, Lanus 1.02.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Boca Juniors
- D1-1Velez Sarsfield8 August 2026
- W1-0Estudiantes La Plata5 August 2026
- D2-2away to Newell's Old Boys2 August 2026
- L0-3away to Deportivo Riestra26 July 2026
- W2-1away to Central Cordoba de Santiago2 May 2026
Lanus
- W3-0away to Talleres Cordoba12 August 2026
- L1-2away to Union Santa Fe6 August 2026
- L0-1Instituto Cordoba3 August 2026
- W1-0San Lorenzo26 July 2026
- L0-2away to Argentinos Juniors10 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 30 |
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Boca Juniors carry a model rating of 6.93 against 6.81 for Lanus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Boca Juniors W-L-D-W-D; Lanus L-W-L-L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for Boca Juniors and 1.02 for Lanus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Boca Juniors rate 1.19 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lanus rate 0.71 and 0.83.
That points to 55% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Boca Juniors a 54% chance of the title and Lanus 4.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Boca Juniors the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Boca Juniors against 1.02 for Lanus. Boca Juniors's attack/defence rating is 1.19/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/0.83 for Lanus.