New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: New York City FC 2-3 Philadelphia Union.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% New York City FC, 25% draw, 36% Philadelphia Union — fair odds of 2.56, 4.00 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
New York City FC at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 49M. FreeseG
- 24T. GrayD
- 23M. MurrayD
- 6J. SandsD
- 2N. CavalloD
- 32J. ShoreM
- 55K. ParksM
- 8A. PereaM
- 26A. OjedaF
- 20LuighiF
- 9B. TraoreF
- 30T. RomeroG
- 22K. O'TooleD
- 34Raul GustavoD
- 29M. CarrizoM
- 35M. IlenicD
- 15K. PierreM
- 88M. JonesF
- 11Talles MagnoF
- 75E. SambM
- 18A. BlakeG
- 39F. WestfieldD
- 44N. PierreD
- 26N. HarrielD
- 27K. WagnerD
- 6C. SullivanM
- 21D. Jean JacquesM
- 4J. LukicM
- 19I. VassilevM
- 9B. DamianiF
- 10M. IloskiF
- 76A. RickG
- 5J. Sery LarsenD
- 11A. BedoyaM
- 33Q. SullivanM
- 8J. BuenoM
- 14J. RafanelloM
- 16B. BenderM
- 28A. AnelloF
- 23E. AlladohF
Form going into New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union
New York City FC
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Toronto FC31 July 2026
- W3-1Chicago Fire25 July 2026
- W2-1away to Columbus Crew22 July 2026
Philadelphia Union
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Atlanta United FC1 August 2026
- W1-0Seattle Sounders25 July 2026
- W3-1New York Red Bulls22 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | New York City FC | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 45 | +4 | 42 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 66 | 52 | +14 | 50 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union
- 1 March 2026Philadelphia Union 1–2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 24 November 2025Philadelphia Union 0–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 4 October 2025Philadelphia Union 1–0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 12 April 2025New York City FC 1–0 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 18 September 2024New York City FC 1–5 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 15 May 2024Philadelphia Union 1–2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: New York City FC and Philadelphia Union
New York City FC
GoalsAssists
- N. Fernández Mercau166
Philadelphia Union
GoalsAssists
- M. Iloski192
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Philadelphia Union won 3–2 at New York City FC. The model had leaned towards a win for New York City FC at 39% and given a win for Philadelphia Union 36%. The goals: B. Traore (penalty) 4' for New York City FC, Luighi (penalty) 45' for New York City FC, D. Jean Jacques 48' for Philadelphia Union, B. Damiani 69' for Philadelphia Union, B. Damiani 75' for Philadelphia Union. On expected goals it finished 2.25–2.39.