New York City FC
vs
Philadelphia Union
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 36% New York City FC, 25% draw, 39% Philadelphia Union — fair odds of 2.78, 4.00 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: New York City FC 1.47, Philadelphia Union 1.56.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Leading scorers
New York City FC
- N. Fernández Mercau13 goals3 assists
Philadelphia Union
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
New York City FC carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.73 for Philadelphia Union. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): New York City FC D-L-W-W-D; Philadelphia Union D-L-W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for New York City FC and 1.56 for Philadelphia Union. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
New York City FC rate 0.70 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Philadelphia Union rate 0.87 and 1.11.
That points to 58% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Philadelphia Union the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for New York City FC against 1.56 for Philadelphia Union. New York City FC's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.11 for Philadelphia Union.