Round of 16 · 22 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Boca Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia Liga Profesional Argentina prediction

Estadio Alberto J. Armando, Buenos Aires

Our model says: Boca Juniors 1–0 Independiente Rivadavia

The model makes it 57% Boca Juniors, 25% draw, 18% Independiente Rivadavia — fair odds of 1.75, 4.00 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).

Expected goals: Boca Juniors 1.85, Independiente Rivadavia 0.83.

Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Edge to Boca Juniors: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Boca Juniors are 2nd in Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A on 33 points from 16 games; Independiente Rivadavia are 7th in Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B on 23 points from 16 games.
  • Boca Juniors are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Defensa Y Justicia.
  • Independiente Rivadavia have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Gimnasia Mendoza.
  • Last 3 meetings: Boca Juniors 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 August 2025, ended Independiente Rivadavia 0–3 Boca Juniors.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Boca Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia

48%
Both teams to score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Boca Juniors win Draw Independiente Rivadavia win
  1. 1–012%
  2. 2–012%
  3. 1–111%
  4. 2–110%
  5. 0–07%
  6. 3–07%
  7. 3–16%

Scores read Boca Juniors first; the other scorelines share the remaining 35%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Boca Juniors at 57%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Boca Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia

Boca Juniors

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • W1-0Defensa Y Justicia7 November 2026
  • W1-0River Plate1 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Independiente25 October 2026
  • W2-1Talleres Cordoba17 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Instituto Cordoba9 October 2026

Independiente Rivadavia

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • D1-1away to Gimnasia Mendoza7 November 2026
  • W3-1Banfield3 November 2026
  • L0-1away to Argentinos Juniors27 October 2026
  • D2-2Tigre17 October 2026
  • L0-5away to Rosario Central11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Boca Juniors went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Boca Juniors scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Boca Juniors won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Independiente Rivadavia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Independiente Rivadavia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Boca Juniors169612414+1033
7Independiente Rivadavia166552124-323

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Boca Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia

  • 17 August 2025Independiente Rivadavia 0–3 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 11 February 2025Boca Juniors 2–0 Independiente RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 10 August 2024Independiente Rivadavia 1–1 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina

Leading scorers: Boca Juniors and Independiente Rivadavia

Boca Juniors

GoalsAssists

  • M. Merentiel92

Independiente Rivadavia

GoalsAssists

  • J. Florentín91
  • A. Arce91
  • F. Sartori80

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Boca Juniors Independiente Rivadavia
1.02 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.95
0.93 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.47
1.85 Model expected goals (this match) 0.83

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Boca Juniors the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Boca Juniors against 0.83 for Independiente Rivadavia. Boca Juniors's attack/defence rating is 1.02/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.47 for Independiente Rivadavia.

How the model reaches 57% for Boca Juniors to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Boca Juniors to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Boca Juniors's ratings add 6 points and Independiente Rivadavia's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 57%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground35%
  2. Home advantage41%+6
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%+1
  4. Boca Juniors's ratings48%+6
  5. Independiente Rivadavia's ratings57%+9

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Boca JuniorsIndependiente Rivadavia
33Matches33
17W 12D 4LRecord16W 9D 8L
48 1.5 per gameGoals scored51 1.5 per game
26 0.8 per gameGoals conceded41 1.2 per game
16 of 33Clean sheets7 of 33
3 of 33Failed to score7 of 33
3 of 3Penalties scored2 of 4
73 2.2 per gameYellow cards73 2.2 per game
0Red cards2
4-3-3 13×Usual shape4-3-1-2 7×

Boca Juniors at home · Independiente Rivadavia away

17Played16
10W 6D 1LRecord5W 6D 5L
23–9Goals for – against14–19
10 of 17Clean sheets6 of 16

League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Boca Juniors 33, Independiente Rivadavia 33.

Boca Juniors scored 3999313
Independiente Rivadavia conceded 7411957

Boca Juniors score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Independiente Rivadavia have let in 7 there.

Independiente Rivadavia scored 8126688
Boca Juniors conceded 833532

Independiente Rivadavia score most often in the 16–30 minute window (12 goals); Boca Juniors have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.