Atlas
vs
Puebla
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Atlas 1–0 Puebla
The model makes it 48% Atlas, 28% draw, 24% Puebla — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Atlas 1.60, Puebla 0.96.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Atlas are 6th on 18 points from 11 games; Puebla are 9th on 15 points from 11 games — Liga MX.
- Atlas are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Guadalajara Chivas.
- Puebla are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Leon.
- Last 6 meetings: Atlas 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 July 2026, ended Atlas 3–4 Puebla.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atlas vs Puebla
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atlas at 48% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atlas vs Puebla
Atlas
- D1-1Guadalajara Chivas11 October 2026
- W3-2away to Club Tijuana26 September 2026
- D1-1Pumas UNAM19 September 2026
- L2-5away to Toluca12 September 2026
- D1-1Atlante FC6 September 2026
Puebla
- D1-1Leon10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Tigres UANL27 September 2026
- D1-1Atlante FC19 September 2026
- L0-1Toluca16 September 2026
- W1-0away to Necaxa12 September 2026
What these results say
- Atlas scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atlas conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Atlas.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Puebla had two goals or fewer.
- Puebla failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Puebla conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 18 |
| 9 | Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Atlas
Chance to finish in the top four · 23% today
Puebla
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 10% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Atlas vs Puebla
- 10 July 2026Atlas 3–4 PueblaFriendlies Clubs
- 10 January 2026Atlas 1–0 PueblaLiga MX
- 12 July 2025Puebla 2–3 AtlasLiga MX
- 15 February 2025Atlas 3–2 PueblaLiga MX
- 20 July 2024Puebla 1–2 AtlasLiga MX
- 9 March 2024Puebla 2–2 AtlasLiga MX
Leading scorers: Atlas and Puebla
Atlas
GoalsAssists
- Luís Esteves41
Puebla
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Atlas carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.45 for Puebla. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Atlas and 0.96 for Puebla. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atlas rate 0.71 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Puebla rate 0.57 and 1.30.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Atlas a 1.7% chance of the title and Puebla 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atlas the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Atlas against 0.96 for Puebla. Atlas's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.3 for Puebla.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atlas at home · Puebla away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AtlasPuebla
Atlas are 6th after 11 Liga MX matches (between 2nd and 7th so far); Puebla are 8th after 11 (between 4th and 9th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Atlas 11, Puebla 11.
Atlas score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Puebla have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Atlas
- at Atletico San Luis31 Oct · Liga MXwin 31%
- vs CF Pachuca7 Nov · Liga MXwin 37%
- at FC Juarez21 Nov · Liga MXwin 39%
Puebla
- vs Pumas UNAM31 Oct · Liga MXwin 34%
- at Club Queretaro9 Nov · Liga MXwin 18%
- vs Atletico San Luis21 Nov · Liga MXwin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.