Pumas UNAM
vs
Club Queretaro
Liga MX prediction
The model makes it 36% Pumas UNAM, 28% draw, 36% Club Queretaro — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Pumas UNAM 1.31, Club Queretaro 1.30.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Pumas UNAM
- W5-1away to FC Juarez1 August 2026
- W2-1away to Toluca22 July 2026
- L0-3CF Pachuca18 July 2026
Club Queretaro
- W3-2Tigres UANL1 August 2026
- W2-1away to CF Pachuca27 July 2026
- L0-1Club America19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Pumas UNAM | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 |
| 7 | Club Queretaro | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Pumas UNAM
- Juninho3 goals
Club Queretaro
- A. Ávila3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Pumas UNAM carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.63 for Club Queretaro. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Pumas UNAM L-W-W; Club Queretaro L-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Pumas UNAM and 1.30 for Club Queretaro. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pumas UNAM rate 0.48 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club Queretaro rate 0.91 and 1.44.
That points to 48% for over two and a half goals and 54% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (9%), 0-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pumas UNAM the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Pumas UNAM against 1.3 for Club Queretaro. Pumas UNAM's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.44 for Club Queretaro.