16 August 2026, 03:10 UTC

Atlas vs Tigres UANL Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Atlas 2-1 Tigres UANL.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Atlas, 30% draw, 31% Tigres UANL — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Atlas at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atlas96%Draw4%Tigres UANL0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Capassoassist: A. Gonzalez
2'
21'
⚽J. Brunettaassist: R. Aguirre
V. H. Rios De Alba
22'
30'
H. Elizondo
M. Capasso
35'
🔁V. H. Rios De Albaout: P. Ramirez
46'
56'
J. Garza
🔁J. Martinout: J. Rodriguez
65'
🔁A. Gonzalezout: L. Esteves
65'
J. Sanchez
70'
🔁Dukout: G. Aguirre
71'
80'
🔁F. Reyesout: V. Lorona
80'
🔁A. Francoout: J. Vigon
⚽L. Estevesassist: E. Zaldivar
81'
85'
⚽J. Brunetta (pen)assist: J. Brunetta
88'
🔁Joaquimout: D. Ramirez
90'
🔁D. Lainezout: I. Galvan

Match stats — Atlas vs Tigres UANL

45%Possession55%
8Shots25
3On target7
2Corners16
0.66xG2.7

Goals against chances

Atlas2 from 0.66 xGmore than the chances were worth
Tigres UANL1 from 2.70 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atlas 3-1-4-2
  • 12C. VargasG
  • 44J. SanchezD
  • 28M. CapassoD
  • 21R. SchlegelD
  • 27V. H. Rios De AlbaM
  • 11DukM
  • 6E. ZaldivarM
  • 58A. GonzalezM
  • 2Gustavo FerrareisM
  • 9F. MonzonF
  • 203J. MartinF
Substitutes
  • 22A. SanchezG
  • 4A. MoraD
  • 5J. RodriguezD
  • 13G. AguirreD
  • 17J. LozanoD
  • 15P. RamirezD
  • 10L. EstevesM
  • 192J. SerratoM
  • 23S. HernandezM
Coach: Hernan Crespo
Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. GuzmanG
  • 14J. Garza
  • 28JoaquimD
  • 15A. FrancoD
  • 2F. ReyesD
  • 8F. GorriaranM
  • 23RomuloM
  • 16D. LainezM
  • 11J. BrunettaM
  • 30D. A. Sanchez GuevaraM
  • 17R. AguirreF
Substitutes
  • 25F. RodriguezG
  • 32V. LoronaD
  • 33R. GuerreroD
  • 26F. I. Ordonez DelgadoD
  • 200D. RamirezD
  • 6J. VigonM
  • 198I. GalvanM
  • 34SimeoneM
  • 19M. LainezF
Coach: Hernan Elizondo

Form going into Atlas vs Tigres UANL

Atlas

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2Monterrey2 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Santos Laguna26 July 2026
  • W3-2away to Leon18 July 2026

Tigres UANL

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3away to Club Queretaro1 August 2026
  • D2-2Atletico San Luis26 July 2026
  • L1-3away to Club Tijuana17 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Atlas168352730-327
15Tigres UANL163671725-815

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atlas vs Tigres UANL

  • 23 April 2026Atlas 0–0 Tigres UANLLiga MX
  • 25 September 2025Tigres UANL 2–0 AtlasLiga MX
  • 9 February 2025Tigres UANL 2–1 AtlasLiga MX
  • 13 July 2024Atlas 1–1 Tigres UANLLiga MX
  • 25 February 2024Tigres UANL 1–1 AtlasLiga MX
  • 18 September 2023Atlas 2–0 Tigres UANLLiga MX

The full Atlas vs Tigres UANL record →

Leading scorers: Atlas and Tigres UANL

Atlas

GoalsAssists

  • F. Monzón51

Tigres UANL

GoalsAssists

  • J. Brunetta94

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Atlas beat Tigres UANL 2–1. The model had made a win for Atlas its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: M. Capasso 2' for Atlas, J. Brunetta 21' for Tigres UANL, L. Esteves 81' for Atlas. Sent off: J. Sanchez (Atlas) 70'. On expected goals it finished 0.66–2.70.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.