Atlas
vs
Tigres UANL
Liga MX prediction
The model makes it 39% Atlas, 30% draw, 31% Tigres UANL — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Atlas 1.22, Tigres UANL 1.04.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Atlas
- L0-2Monterrey2 August 2026
- W1-0away to Santos Laguna26 July 2026
- W3-2away to Leon18 July 2026
Tigres UANL
- L2-3away to Club Queretaro1 August 2026
- D2-2Atletico San Luis26 July 2026
- L1-3away to Club Tijuana17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Atlas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Atlas carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.68 for Tigres UANL. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Atlas W-W-L; Tigres UANL L-D-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Atlas and 1.04 for Tigres UANL. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atlas rate 0.62 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tigres UANL rate 0.73 and 1.04.
That points to 39% for over two and a half goals and 46% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atlas the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Atlas against 1.04 for Tigres UANL. Atlas's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.04 for Tigres UANL.