Monterrey vs FC Juarez Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Monterrey 6-1 FC Juarez.
Before kick-off the model made it 83% Monterrey, 10% draw, 7% FC Juarez — fair odds of 1.20, 10.00 and 14.29.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Monterrey at 83%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Monterrey vs FC Juarez
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22L. CardenasG
- 2R. ChavezD
- 4V. GuzmanD
- 19A. AcevesD
- 3G. ArteagaD
- 8O. TorresM
- 25O. PinedaM
- 10L. OrellanoM
- 9D. RossiM
- 7L. OcamposM
- 99H. CuypersF
- 31C. RamosG
- 21L. ReyesD
- 30J. RodriguezM
- 11I. FimbresM
- 18C. GarzaM
- 5F. AmbrizM
- 17J. CoronaM
- 27R. de la RosaF
- 203A. De NigrisF
- 1S. JuradoG
- 20J. AquinoD
- 3J. MurilloD
- 23H. OrtegaD
- 4A. MayorgaD
- 8Guilherme CastilhoM
- 5D. GarciaM
- 7R. FulgencioM
- 21RicardinhoM
- 11J. RodriguezM
- 19O. EstupinanF
- 27G. RuizG
- 33F. J. Nevarez PulgarinD
- 2G. SepulvedaD
- 203L. CarmonaM
- 16J. SigalaM
- 13Rodrigo DouradoM
- 6MonchuM
- 201J. CarmonaM
- 10J. M. Torres Ramirez I.F
Form going into Monterrey vs FC Juarez
Monterrey
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Atlas2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Necaxa26 July 2026
- W3-2Santos Laguna19 July 2026
FC Juarez
All competitions we cover
- L1-5Pumas UNAM1 August 2026
- L0-1away to Guadalajara Chivas25 July 2026
- L0-1Puebla18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Monterrey | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 25 | +1 | 21 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 34 | -21 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Monterrey vs FC Juarez
- 14 March 2026FC Juarez 2–2 MonterreyLiga MX
- 22 October 2025Monterrey 4–2 FC JuarezLiga MX
- 9 February 2025FC Juarez 2–1 MonterreyLiga MX
- 19 September 2024Monterrey 3–2 FC JuarezLiga MX
- 24 February 2024FC Juarez 0–3 MonterreyLiga MX
- 7 October 2023Monterrey 3–1 FC JuarezLiga MX
Leading scorers: Monterrey and FC Juarez
Monterrey
GoalsAssists
- L. Ocampos73
- H. Cuypers61
- D. Rossi53
FC Juarez
GoalsAssists
- Ó. Estupiñán80
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Monterrey beat FC Juarez 6–1. The model had made a win for Monterrey its most likely outcome, at 83%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–1. The goals: L. Orellano 6' for Monterrey, D. Rossi 15' for Monterrey, H. Cuypers 29' for Monterrey, O. Estupinan 32' for FC Juarez, O. Pineda 45' for Monterrey, L. Ocampos 62' for Monterrey, J. Rodriguez 90' for Monterrey. On expected goals it finished 2.49–0.33.