Eldense vs Eibar Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Eldense 1-2 Eibar.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Eldense, 30% draw, 33% Eibar — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Eldense at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Eldense vs Eibar
Line-ups
- 1Ramón VilaG
- 19A. IbarrondoD
- 5Alex SerradellD
- 4F. SmandD
- 21D. RuizD
- 14J. SmithM
- 15Carlos GuiraoM
- 10FidelM
- 12Roberto LópezM
- 33Aingeru OlabarrietaM
- 11Manu NietoF
- 22J. YandaD
- 36D. BernabeuG
- 17Jesús ClementeD
- 13JuanpaG
- 3Juan LariosD
- 18Guillermo MachoM
- 24Javi MartínezM
- 7Jorge RastrojoF
- 2Iker RecioD
- 13Jon MikelG
- 22Álvaro RodríguezD
- 4Unai ElgezabalD
- 23Anaitz ArbillaD
- 24Juan BernatD
- 30Aleix GarridoM
- 8Ander MadariagaM
- 11Jon MagunazelaiaM
- 21Iván GilM
- 7Malcom AduM
- 9Jon BautistaF
- 27Elijah Gift Izobodo JohnF
- 10Jon GuruzetaM
- 20Javi MartónF
- 17PejiñoF
- 3Imanol García de AlbénizD
- 2Sergio CuberoD
- 18M. AranaD
- 15Jair AmadorD
- 28Lucas NuñezM
Form going into Eldense vs Eibar
Eldense
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Sporting Gijon13 September 2026
- D0-0Mallorca5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Leganes29 August 2026
- D2-2Cadiz22 August 2026
- L0-3away to Almeria17 August 2026
Eibar
All competitions we cover
- W4-0away to Celta de Vigo II14 September 2026
- W3-0Granada CF6 September 2026
- W1-0away to FC Andorra30 August 2026
- W1-0Valladolid23 August 2026
- L1-3Tenerife16 August 2026
What these results say
- Eldense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Eibar scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Eibar won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Eibar kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Eldense | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 14 |
| 3 | Eibar | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Eldense vs Eibar
- 13 January 2025Eldense 1–3 EibarSegunda División
- 12 October 2024Eibar 1–0 EldenseSegunda División
- 30 March 2024Eibar 5–1 EldenseSegunda División
- 28 August 2023Eldense 2–1 EibarSegunda División
Leading scorers: Eldense and Eibar
Eldense
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Eibar
GoalsAssists
- Iván Gil41
- Jon Guruzeta32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Eibar won 2–1 at Eldense. The model had leaned towards a win for Eldense at 37% and given a win for Eibar 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Jon Magunazelaia 29' for Eibar, Iván Gil 63' for Eibar, Justin Smith 76' for Eldense.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.